Революционные события XXI века: предварительный количественный анализ

Полис. Политические исследования. 2023. № 4. С. 54–71.

Голдстоун Д., Grinin L. E., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A.

The authors study important aspects of the revolutionary process of the 21st century. The reasons why the revolutionary process of the beginning of the 21st century is going on quite rapidly are considered, as well as forecasts promising that it will be very active in the future; revolutionary trends are analyzed, including a particularly alarming one - the growth in the number of radical Islamist revolutionary uprisings. All of the above is illustrated by a statistical analysis of various types of revolutions. As far as the authors know, there are practically no quantitative studies of the revolutions of the last decades. Meanwhile, this analysis convincingly shows the growing importance of the African countries in the revolutionary process in the World System, the role of which will continue to increase in the future due to the rapid growth of the population and the strengthening of statehood in the region.

Keywords: революция, revolution, цветная революция, исламская революция, Islamic Revolution, color revolution, revolutionary event, революционное событие, revolutionary progress, unconsolidated democracies, революционный прогресс, неконсолидированные демократии