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Exploring the Interplay Between Early Warning Systems’ Usefulness and Basel III Regulation
P. 277–286.
We analyse the ability of credit gap measures to predict banking crises by estimating the usefulness measure conditionally on policymaker's preferences. The results show that the signals based on the credit gap indicators are most useful when the policymaker’s preferences regarding Type I and Type II errors are approximately equal. However, according to the current consensus, the preferences to avoid missing a crisis are higher than issuing a false signal. This means that the usefulness of the credit-gap-based early warning systems is likely to increase once the static Basel III regulative measures are implemented (assuming that their implementation results in lower financial crises’ costs).
In book
Springer, 2021.
Shchepeleva M., Procedia Computer Science 2025 No. 266 P. 447–455
We investigate the transmission of systemic stress in a sample of selected advanced and emerging market economies for the period between August 2008 and June 2024. Using national SRISK indices, we estimate high-dimensional vector autoregressions and conduct Granger causality tests. We display the lead-lag linkages among the countries as a network and examine its topology. We find that ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Shchepeleva M., Финансы: теория и практика 2025 Т. 29 № 4 С. 146–162
This research is devoted to the analysis of financial crises. We examine different classifications of crises, methods of forecasting, approaches to building systems of early warning indicators. To better understand the potential for predicting financial crises, we conduct our own empirical research, comparing Logit model and random forest to predict currency crises in developing countries. ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Банникова В. А., Виноградова О. С., Penikas H. I., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 9 С. 103–125
События 2022—2023 гг. сформировали условия для изучения квазиестественного эксперимента с целью оценить влияние мер поддержки Банка России на биржевую стоимость акций банков. Общий фон внешних событий воздействовал на всех участников фондового рынка. Однако по отношению к банкам было осуществлено дополнительное воздействие, которого не было для иных компаний, — это меры поддержки банков, принятые в 2022 ...
Added: September 9, 2025
Teplova T., Fayzulin M., Kurkin A., Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2025 No. 101 Article 102292
This research is devoted to the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning models for forecasting crisis phenomena in the Russian stock market. The work covers the period from the beginning of 2014 to June 2024, using the IMOEX index as the main indicator of the market condition. Special attention ...
Added: August 2, 2025
Lapteva E., Pilnik N., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2025 Т. 41 № 3 С. 340–363
The article systematizes, synthesizes, and compares the results of studies aimed at modeling and assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy both at the level of individual countries and in a cross-country context. It provides an interdisciplinary review that integrates empirical findings with theoretical frameworks of macroprudential regulation, offering a novel analytical perspective on its effectiveness ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Andreev M., M. Udara Peiris, Alexander Shirobokov et al., Annals of Finance 2024 Vol. 20 P. 167–197
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured ...
Added: February 19, 2025
Peiris U., Shirobokov A., Tsomocos D., Journal of International Money and Finance 2024 Vol. 141 Article 103012
Emerging Market Economies struggle to balance monetary policy with capital flow management and commodity price volatility. Our study employs a New-Keynesian model, using Russian data from 2001 to 2019, to examine ‘Lean Against the Wind’ (LAW) monetary policies. We show that under Lean Against the Wind (LAW) policies, households with borrowed funds experience improved welfare, ...
Added: April 8, 2024
Mishin A., Review of Economic Dynamics 2023 Vol. 51 P. 965–990
Regulated banks expand relative to shadow banks in recessions and when credit spreads are high, while regulated banks shrink relative to shadow banks in expansions and when credit spreads are low. Motivated by these facts, I build a quantitative general equilibrium model with endogenous risk taking to study how competitive interactions between regulated banks and ...
Added: December 16, 2023
Dzhagityan E. P., Алексеева М. Г., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2024 № 2 (63) С. 168–191
Amid increasing uncertainty in the global financial markets, the accumulation of risks in the banking sector highlights the lack of alternatives to macroprudential policy (MPP), including in the light of the bankruptcy of a number of leading U.S. banks. The paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on the risks of large U.S. bank holding ...
Added: November 12, 2023
Kozlovtceva I., Penikas H. I., Петренева Е. А. et al., Emerging Markets Review 2022 Vol. 52
We use data regarding Russian banks during the 2015–2019 period to evaluate the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures in curbing the booming consumer lending segment. We find that the measures are successful in reducing overall loan portfolio riskiness and capital cushion accumulation by banks. In the short run of up to 1–2 quarters after the ...
Added: July 28, 2023
Дерюгина Е. Б., Ponomarenko A. A., Рожкова А. М., Economic Analysis and Policy 2020 Vol. 67 P. 221–238
Added: March 28, 2023
Ponomarenko A. A., Татаринцев С. А., Journal of Economic Asymmetries 2023 Vol. 27 Article e00284
We set up an early warning system for financial crises based on the Random Forrest approach. We use a novel set of predictors that comprises financial development indicators in addition to conventional imbalances measures. The evaluation of the model is conducted using a three-step procedure (i.e. training, validation and testing sub-samples). The results indicate that ...
Added: March 28, 2023
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., , in: The Routledge Handbook of Comparative Economic Systems.: Routledge, 2023. P. 664–675.
Added: January 5, 2023
Karamysheva M., Seregina E., Journal of International Money and Finance 2022 Vol. 127 Article 102696
The impact of prudential policies in open economies depends on their intrinsic efficacy and the spillovers from the close financial partners. Using a sample of advanced economies, we find that prudential policy interventions significantly reduce systemic risk in the financial systems with the impact amplified through a network of financial investment links. Using the Spatial ...
Added: July 15, 2022
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Karminsky A. M., Financial Innovation 2021 Vol. 7 No. 1 Article 41
The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk, industrial production, and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018. We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables, capturing their global effects, and use a novel econometric technique, namely, smooth local projections. The study finds that global macroprudential policy ...
Added: October 31, 2021
Grishunin S., Dyachkova N., Karminsky A. M., , in: Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets' Banking: Trends and Prospects.: Springer, 2021. Ch. 4 P. 93–119.
This paper examines the issues of the aggregation and comparison of the credit ratings of various economic agents for risk management purposes in a commercial bank. The empirical results of the study make it possible to increase the assessment of credit risks based on the constructed system of aggregating credit ratings for industrial companies and ...
Added: October 30, 2021
Grishunin S., Dyachkova N., Karminsky A. M., , in: Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets' Banking: Trends and Prospects.: Springer, 2021. Ch. 3 P. 67–92.
Ratings in emerging markets can serve as part of the early warning systems to reflect the weak signals of potential risks to the entity from the environment. Emerging markets have specific features that rating agencies usually consider in judgments of their credit ratings. They are underpinned by the higher volatility, exposure to sovereign issues, weaknesses ...
Added: October 30, 2021
Penikas H. I., Деньги и кредит 2021 Т. 80 № 3 С. 94–104
In the first week of June 2021, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School hosted a joint international online workshop titled ‘Identification and Measurement of Macroprudential Policies Effects’. Participants’ presentations suggest that macroprudential policy measures against high-risk lending produce their intended effects, but also, as a rule, bring about side effects. These effects ...
Added: September 28, 2021
Akhmetov R., Mamonov M. E., Pankova V., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 6 С. 5–31
This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely ...
Added: July 9, 2021
Andreev M., Peiris U., Shirobokov A. et al., / Series 57 "WORKING PAPER SERIES". 2020. No. 57.
Commodity exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. Although financial frictions may amplify commodity price shocks, how they do so for net exporters is unclear. Using Russian data from 2001-2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who issue secured debt and ...
Added: June 4, 2020
Andreev M., Peiris U., Shirobokov A. et al., Russian Journal of Money and Finance 2019 Vol. 78 No. 3 P. 3–37
We study a small open economy New Keynesian model calibrated to the Russian economy with a banking system that trades secured and unsecured debt. Firms endogenously default on their unsecured debt obligations over the business cycle. We examine the effectiveness of four alternative countercyclical policies that respond to the growth in unsecured credit in the ...
Added: June 4, 2020
Kholodilin K., Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie 2019 Vol. 5 No. 1 P. 67–87
Ten years after the world financial and economic crisis, which was triggered by the US real estate crisis, more and more concerns are raised due to the worldwide housing price increases. In this article, using the OECD data for 20 countries it is shown that these concerns are not without ground: In eight countries, the ...
Added: November 6, 2019
Kolari J., Lopez Iturriaga F. J., Pastor Sanz I., Global Finance Journal 2019 Vol. 39 P. 44–57
This paper tests the hypothesis that stress tests are primarily a function of the fundamental financial condition and operating environment of individual banks, rather than alternative adverse economic and financial scenarios imposed by regulators. We develop a novel early warning system based on multiple strategy ensemble methods to predict whether European banks pass stress tests ...
Added: October 31, 2019