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Aggregation of Rating Systems for Emerging Financial Markets
Ch. 4. P. 93–119.
This paper examines the issues of the aggregation and comparison of the credit ratings of various economic agents for risk management purposes in a commercial bank. The empirical results of the study make it possible to increase the assessment of credit risks based on the constructed system of aggregating credit ratings for industrial companies and commercial banks. The work also confirms the relationship between the level of assigned credit ratings and the various phases of the credit cycle. The dynamics at the macroeconomic level shows that the credit ratings of various economic agents change in different directions and are out of sync with time correlation of credit cycles in various phases. The main scientific result of the study is an aggregate-based approach for credit risk evaluation of various economic agents and to develop the quantitative methods for assessing the relationship between the level of credit ratings and the credit cycle.
In book
Springer, 2021.
Vlada Shenevskaia, Sergey Grishunin, Alyona Astakhova, , in: Proceedings of the 44th Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference, Istanbul 2023. Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives. (EBES, volume 31).: Switzerland: Springer, 2024. P. 209–229.
The study focuses on estimating the creditworthiness of industrial enterprises in the Eurozone and North America, using a sample of 122 companies from 2008 to 2022. The data framework consists of annual financial, macroeconomic, and ESG risk factors. The paper’s principal contribution lies in a comparative examination of advanced modelling approaches for assessing the credit ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Semenova M., Loginova Y., Balsevich A. A., Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 2026 Vol. 97 Article 103118
This paper examines the effect of board gender diversity on bank performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a panel dataset of 173 European banks spanning the period 2010–2022, we find that the presence of female directors on bank boards is positively associated with profitability and solvency during the pandemic period. The positive impact is more ...
Added: February 22, 2026
Ozerov K., Кутенко С. В., Деньги и кредит 2024 Т. 83 № 4 С. 98–118
Under limited data, the classical cohort method for the creation of migration matrices does not fully reflect the dynamics of the credit quality of the objects within the sample. This problem is exacerbated for objects of lower credit quality less represented in the sample. This paper investigates a continuous time approach to the creation of ...
Added: December 20, 2025
Ружанская Л. С., Kuzyk M., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2025 № 2(67) С. 264–272
The paper discusses the shifts in the determinants of digitalization processes in the Russian manufacturers under the impact of shocks in recent years. How are digitalization strategies changing in companies? What factors of digitalization remained relevant? What directions in digitalisation is the government setting? Empirical analysis based on two waves of a survey by the ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Pastukhov E., , in: Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives.: Springer, 2024.
This study seeks to identify and analyze trends in the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) globally, with a particular emphasis on emerging markets such as Russia. We examined the impact of CBDCs on the liquidity of Russian commercial banks, driven by a noticeable gap in existing research on this topic. Focusing on Russia ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Sizykh D., Kovalev R., Sizykh N., , in: 2024 17th International Conference on Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD).: IEEE, 2024. P. 1–5.
To improve the assessment model of credit risk by Merton for Russian financial market using the Monte Carlo simulation method and the SARIMA model for data forecasting. Nowadays, there are many methods of the assessment use in European countries. However, the applications of these methods may lead to inaccurate forecasts. In this work, modern methods ...
Added: January 15, 2025
Afanasev V., Финансы и бизнес 2024 Vol. 20 No. 3 P. 71–88
The conventional approach to default prediction implies using financial ratios as predictors. This paper provides evidence for improvement in the quality of default prediction for auto repair firms if non-financial data is included in the models. The study uses a sample of more than 200 firms, which defaulted in 2018–2023 and 10 healthy peers samples ...
Added: October 2, 2024
Ramenskaya A., Яркова О. Н., Цифровая экономика 2022 № 2(18) С. 72–81
To form a strategy for managing the lending process and credit risk, analysts of a credit organization need to have tools for modeling the lending process, which allows not only to assess the effectiveness of the lending process in the current situation, but also to assess risks in a changing economic environment. The purpose of this study is to ...
Added: September 9, 2024
Penikas H. I., / Банк России. Серия доклады Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2024.
In 2016, the Bank of Russia developed two ordinances to set forth a procedure using a limited sample of loans to conclude whether the level of loss provisions in the portfolio of uniform loans is sufficient or not and whether the bank’s capital is adequate.
The existing procedure of reserve sufficiency evaluation previews as a rule considering only a part of the loan portfolio and transfer (extrapolation) of the provision thus assessed for the overall portfolio. Moreover, the acting approach to define the minimum loan sample size assumes the absence of the default correlation.
Author’s contribution ...
Added: June 1, 2024
Yuliana Loginova, Semenova M., / Series WP BRP "Financial Economics". 2024. No. 94/FE/2024.
This paper explores the impact of board gender diversity on bank performance during the
COVID-19 crisis. Using data from 87 European banks from 2015 to 2021, we show that the
presence of women on bank boards had a positive impact on bank profitability during the
COVID-19 crisis. This effect is more pronounced in countries where the morbidity rate ...
Added: February 14, 2024
Arkhipova N., Karminsky A. M., Procedia Computer Science 2023 Vol. 221 P. 1091–1098
This paper investigates and defines the concept of "credit behavior". A number of factors influencing credit behaviour of the population were identified. Among them are economic factors, e.g. income and expenses, debt burden, unemployment, interest rates, etc. Another important group of factors impacting credit behavior is social aspects, i.e. level of education, social status, financial and digital ...
Added: November 17, 2023
Господарчук Г. Г., Aistov A., Suchkova E. O., Финансы: теория и практика 2023 Т. 27 № 2 С. 108–118
Depending on the chosen business model, banks can act as both shock absorbers and crisis catalysts. In this regard, the analysis of the relationship between banks’ business models and financial cycles becomes a useful tool for diagnosing and predicting crisis phenomena. The purpose of the research is to identify the relationship between the volume of ...
Added: June 14, 2023
Penikas H. I., Вопросы экономики 2023 Т. 6 С. 36–61
Впервые рассмотрен уникальный массив данных о предложении ставок по кредитам с февраля по август 2022 г. Обосновано, что такие предложения, содержащие информацию о ставке и дополнительных условиях (срок, сумма и т. д.), чаще дают более крупные банки. Проанализированы слагаемые как кредитного риска ссуды, так и риск-аппетита банка. Показано, что банки, оценивающие кредитный риск для нормативов ...
Added: June 9, 2023
Afanasev V., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2023 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 64–77
The author tested the hypothesis that default prediction based on financial data may be inapplicable to Russian service sector organizations by analyzing the differences in the accuracy of models based solely on financial data for service providers from Russia and developed European countries. Logistic regression, Random Forest and K-nearest neighbors machine learning methods were used as modeling ...
Added: May 21, 2023
Маракуева М. А., Финансы и бизнес 2021 Т. 17 № 4 С. 3–17
The article discusses the most common mistakes in banking practice when constructing scoring models for assessing the credit risk of individuals. For a detail description, we have selected the most significant ones from the point of view of generating retail profit. With the example of logistic regression we show how much the price of each ...
Added: April 8, 2023
Дерюгина Е. Б., Ponomarenko A. A., Рожкова А. М., Economic Analysis and Policy 2020 Vol. 67 P. 221–238
Added: March 28, 2023
Ponomarenko A. A., Татаринцев С. А., Journal of Economic Asymmetries 2023 Vol. 27 Article e00284
We set up an early warning system for financial crises based on the Random Forrest approach. We use a novel set of predictors that comprises financial development indicators in addition to conventional imbalances measures. The evaluation of the model is conducted using a three-step procedure (i.e. training, validation and testing sub-samples). The results indicate that ...
Added: March 28, 2023
Selivanovskiy A., Научно-образовательный портал «Большая российская энциклопедия» 2023
Credit rating agencies, organizations engaged in the activity of compiling a credit rating - opinions on the ability of a rated entity to fulfill all financial obligations assumed, expressed using a rating category. Credit ratings are calculated on the basis of the past and current financial history of market participants, as well as on the ...
Added: March 19, 2023
Deryugina E., Maria Guseva, Alexey Ponomarenko, , in: Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets' Banking: Trends and Prospects.: Springer, 2021. P. 277–286.
We analyse the ability of credit gap measures to predict banking crises by estimating the usefulness measure conditionally on policymaker's preferences. The results show that the signals based on the credit gap indicators are most useful when the policymaker’s preferences regarding Type I and Type II errors are approximately equal. However, according to the current ...
Added: January 31, 2023
Khasyanova S. Y., Вопросы статистики 2022 Т. 29 № 5 С. 96–109
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the Covid-19 pandemic affected the stability of Russian banks .To achieve this goal, an economic and statistical analysis of the risk and liquidity indicators of the Russian banking sector for the period 2008-2020 was performed. The analysis was based on the methodology for assessing the financial ...
Added: November 24, 2022
Ivanova N. S., Penikas H. I., Popova S. et al., Деньги и кредит 2022 Т. 81 № 3 С. 89–106
In early July 2022, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School held a joint workshop titled ‘Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: Costs and Risks for the Financial Sector’. The presentations delivered at the workshop enable a number of general conclusions to be drawn. First, as follows from the results of the calculations in ...
Added: October 13, 2022
Dean Fantazzini, Calabrese R., Journal of Risk and Financial Management 2021 Vol. 14 No. 11 Article 516
While there is increasing interest in crypto assets, the credit risk of these exchanges is still relatively unexplored. To fill this gap, we considered a unique dataset of 144 exchanges, active from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2021. We analyzed the determinants surrounding the decision to close an exchange using ...
Added: July 31, 2022