О ключевых аспектах оценки эффективности макропруденциальной политики

Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика. 2025. Т. 41. № 3. С. 340–363.

Lapteva E., Pilnik N.

The article systematizes, synthesizes, and compares the results of studies aimed at modeling and assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy both at the level of individual countries and in a cross-country context. It provides an interdisciplinary review that integrates empirical findings with theoretical frameworks of macroprudential regulation, offering a novel analytical perspective on its effectiveness and unintended consequences. The research question addresses whether a universal approach exists for evaluating the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. The paper discusses methodological opportunities and barriers in constructing a comprehensive indicator of macroprudential policy stringency and quantifying its impact on various financial stability metrics. A systematic analysis of contemporary theoretical and empirical approaches to quantifying the intensity of prudential supervision reveals a lack of consensus and a universal methodology for evaluating the policy’s effectiveness across different countries. The observed heterogeneity in results is linked to the unintended consequences of the policy, which are given special attention in the study. Moreover, the paper emphasizes the coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies. It describes key transmission mechanisms that may conflict and significantly reduce the effectiveness of both policies. The study demonstrates that their complementarity is best captured through dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, where macroprudential regulation can be implemented via various channels systematically outlined in the research. The scientific novelty of the article lies in identifying and systematizing key methodological and empirical approaches to evaluating macroprudential policy, as well as in highlighting underexplored aspects of its effectiveness in diverse institutional and economic contexts. This analysis not only consolidates existing findings but also identifies directions for future research. This underscores the academic value of the paper, highlighting its originality not only as a synthesis of existing data but also as a foundation for new perspectives in their analysis.

Keywords: монетарная политика, monetary policy, financial stability, финансовая стабильность, системный риск, макропруденциальная политика, macroprudential policy, systemic risk