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Влияет ли ненаправленное научение на повышение точности житейских прогнозов: эксперимент в области социального метапознания
The article presents the results of an experiment that made it possible to find out to what degree people are able to learn to estimate parameters and, ultimately, to learn probabilistic generative models of the social enviroment in the process of implicit undirected learning that takes place in everyday life. It is shown that the observed effects of episodic learning can be influenced by implicit (background) knowledge about local, in our particular case, Russian realities. In addition, we found that the effects of learning are apparently influenced by a number of other factors: everyday social interactions in a particular region or city, a format for presenting examples that is close to experience. Improving the accuracy of the forecast can also be a consequence of the ability to extrapolate easily remembered data. The data obtained allow us to conclude that the initial «illusion of knowledgeability», discovered in the earlier study (Deviatko 2012), is not associated with the metacognitive ability to regulate one's judgments based on the feedback imitating the episodic (situational) «everyday experience».