Демографические факторы как предикторы революционных ситуаций: опыт количественного анализа

Социологический журнал. 2022. Т. 28. № 4. С. 34–59.

Ustyuzhanin V., Жодзишская П. А., Korotayev A.

Although there are plenty of quantitative cross-national analyses on the influence of population age structure on revolutionary risks, there are currently not enough studies that examine its impact on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions taken separately. Assuming that the dependence of potential political destabilization on the median age will suffer for armed and unarmed revolutions, we propose the following hypothesis. High median age and the level of a country’s economic development will negatively correlate with armed revolutions. A moderately young median age will have positive influence on the risks of non violent rebellions, while the overall dependence of unarmed revolutions on median age will be slightly positive and curvilinear. Relying on materials from NAMCO 1.3 and the UN Population Division databases and by means of utilizing cross-tabulations, correlations and logistic regression, we analyze about 250 revolutionary episodes between 1950 and 2019. All of our hypotheses turn out to be supported. The higher the median age  of  the  population  —  the  less  likely  the  occurrence  will  be  of  armed  revolutionary  instability. On the other hand, as the population ages, the risks of unarmed revolutionary actions first grow, but then decline.

Keywords: демография, demography, revolutions, Революции

Publication based on the results of: New revolution wave at the Afrasian instability zone (2022)