Сезонность рождаемости в России: региональные особенности

Вопросы статистики. 2022. № 29(2). С. 61–76.

Rodionova L., Kopnova E.

In the article we try to explain the birth seasonality in Russia. In Russia, as in many countries of the world, most children were born in the summer (July, August). The amplitude of seasonal fluctuations in the number of births was calculated for two periods: 2006-2014 and 2015-2020. In the regions of the Russia there was a high amplitude of seasonal fluctuations - 11-27% of the average, but a downward trend had emerged. The relevance of the chosen topic was determined by the need to study the structure of demographic indicators and their monitoring within the framework of the implementation of national projects until 2024.

In the work, a literature review was carried out regarding the factors of the seasonality of births in Russia and in the countries of the world. Some hypotheses were tested using econometric tools based on monthly data on the number of births in the regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2006-2021. The statistically significant factors that form the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations were the degree of urbanization, income and the climate based on the OLS model. The amplitude of fluctuations in births decreased with an increase in the level of urbanization (growth in the share of the urban population) and the population of the region. An increase in January temperature increased the amplitude of birth fluctuations. The positive impact of income on the amplitude of the fluctuation was explained by the active planning of the timing of childbearing in high-income regions, but further research was needed. Nutritional characteristics were found to be statistically insignificant factors.The number of marriages took a special place in the formation of the seasonality of births. On the whole for the Russian Federation, based on time series models, a cointegration relationship between the number of marriages and the number of births was found. This relationship had begun to weaken over the past five years.

Keywords: коинтеграция, cointegration, анализ временных рядов, VECM, time series analysis, birth seasonality, сезонность рождений, сезонность браков, амплитуда сезонных колебаний, VЕСМ-модели