Exploring the relation of cyber risks to traditional risks using an extended psychometric model

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 2022.

Gavrilov K. A., Butynko M.

In this paper we explore the public perception of cyber risks using the psychometric paradigm (P. Slovic, B. Fischhoff, S. Lichtenstein) and an extended version which we created by adding several judgments related to the responsibility concept. 2359 respondents of an online survey were presented with seven cyber risks (e.g. computer games, hacker attacks and viruses) and 65 traditional dangers (e.g. natural disasters, nuclear power plants and terrorism). Risks were assessed using eight characteristics from the standard psychometric paradigm methodology and four characteristics related to responsibility.

We found that cyber risks do not form a separate cluster, neither when the standard methodology is used, nor when the extended methodology is used. The dangers most similar to cyber dangers (except computer games) are space exploration, stem cell research and radiation therapy. On the “traditional” risk perception dimensions, cyber risks are located in the middle of the “dread” dimension and score relatively high on the “unknown risk” dimension. Our study indicates that responsibility can be considered to be a one-dimensional aspect of risk perception, irreducible to the traditional two-factor structure, although it was found to be related to the “dread” dimension. According to the extended model, cyber risks fall into two main clusters. The first has higher responsibility ratings (i.e. computer viruses, hacker attacks and identity theft), and the second has higher “unknown” risk scores (i.e. cyber bullying, Information and communications technology and Internet fraud). Nevertheless, on the resulting three-dimensional plot of risk perception, the dangers nearest to cyber dangers are the same as for the two-dimensional model: radiation therapy, space exploration, microwaves and construction of bridges/tunnels.

Keywords: риск, risk, ответственность, responsibility, risk perception, восприятие риска, psychometric paradigm, психометрическая парадигма

Publication based on the results of: Соотношение традиционных рисков и киберрисков: опыт использования расширенной версии «психометрической парадигмы» (2020)