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Improving the Credit Risk Assessment Model using Forecasting and Monte Carlo Methods
P. 1–5.
To improve the assessment model of credit risk by Merton for Russian financial market using the Monte Carlo simulation method and the SARIMA model for data forecasting. Nowadays, there are many methods of the assessment use in European countries. However, the applications of these methods may lead to inaccurate forecasts. In this work, modern methods of credit risk assessment by Merton and Vasicek were adapted and improved. These methods are proposed to be used in the implementation of the Monte Carlo simulation model, which has a high adaptive capacity, which allows it to be effectively used in Russian conditions. The proposed model for assessing credit risks was tested on actual data from companies in two industries. The results showed its effectiveness and the possibility of application in the Russian credit market.
Vlada Shenevskaia, Sergey Grishunin, Alyona Astakhova, , in: Proceedings of the 44th Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference, Istanbul 2023. Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives. (EBES, volume 31).: Switzerland: Springer, 2024. P. 209–229.
The study focuses on estimating the creditworthiness of industrial enterprises in the Eurozone and North America, using a sample of 122 companies from 2008 to 2022. The data framework consists of annual financial, macroeconomic, and ESG risk factors. The paper’s principal contribution lies in a comparative examination of advanced modelling approaches for assessing the credit ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Semenova M., Loginova Y., Balsevich A. A., Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 2026 Vol. 97 Article 103118
This paper examines the effect of board gender diversity on bank performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a panel dataset of 173 European banks spanning the period 2010–2022, we find that the presence of female directors on bank boards is positively associated with profitability and solvency during the pandemic period. The positive impact is more ...
Added: February 22, 2026
Галанов В. А., Galanova A., Наука и практика. Научно-аналитический журнал РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова 2025 Т. 17 № 1(57) С. 27–34
The differences between short-term and long-term types of investment in the stock market have a deep economic basis in relation to which the time period acts only as a generalizing feature that allows reflecting the holistic and complex range of economic differences between them, primarily in terms of their profitability and risks. The duration of ...
Added: May 28, 2025
Anna S. Bodrova, Osinsky A., Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics 2025 Vol. 111 No. 3 Article 035402
We investigate both ensemble and time-averaged mean-squared displacements of particles in a polydisperse granular system in a homogeneous cooling state and derive rigorous analytical expressions valid both at short and long time scales. The discrepancies in ensemble and time-averaged mean-squared displacements indicate ergodicity breaking in granular systems consisting of an arbitrary number of species of ...
Added: March 5, 2025
Zaiane S., Semenova M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series FE "Financial Economics". 2025. No. 96FE2025.
This study examines the relationship between managerial ability (MA) and bank loan quality, employing a quantile regression model. It analyzes whether the impact of MA on loan quality changes across various quantiles of risk. Using a sample of 126 MENA banks (2006–2020), the results reveal that the impact of MA on bank loan quality varies ...
Added: February 18, 2025
Galanova A., Овсяник В. А., Наука и практика. Научно-аналитический журнал РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова 2024 Т. 16 № 3(55) С. 37–50
Credit ratings represent an assessment of the totality of borrowers' risks, and due to the very method of compilation, they contain a large amount of information about companies which is taken into account by market participants. The impact of news release about a change in a company's credit rating on the dynamics of its stock prices can be analyzed ...
Added: December 21, 2024
Afanasev V., Финансы и бизнес 2024 Vol. 20 No. 3 P. 71–88
The conventional approach to default prediction implies using financial ratios as predictors. This paper provides evidence for improvement in the quality of default prediction for auto repair firms if non-financial data is included in the models. The study uses a sample of more than 200 firms, which defaulted in 2018–2023 and 10 healthy peers samples ...
Added: October 2, 2024
A. A. Ponomarev, N. L. Aleksandrov, Physics of Plasmas 2024 Vol. 31 No. 4 Article 043517
The kinetics of O2- ions was numerically studied in He and Ar with a small admixture of O2 in a strong electric field through a Monte Carlo simulation. Cross-sections for elastic scattering between O2- ions and He and Ar atoms were determined by adjusting cross-section values to obtain good agreement between calculated and measured ion ...
Added: August 26, 2024
Penikas H. I., / Банк России. Серия доклады Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2024.
In 2016, the Bank of Russia developed two ordinances to set forth a procedure using a limited sample of loans to conclude whether the level of loss provisions in the portfolio of uniform loans is sufficient or not and whether the bank’s capital is adequate.
The existing procedure of reserve sufficiency evaluation previews as a rule considering only a part of the loan portfolio and transfer (extrapolation) of the provision thus assessed for the overall portfolio. Moreover, the acting approach to define the minimum loan sample size assumes the absence of the default correlation.
Author’s contribution ...
Added: June 1, 2024
Yuliana Loginova, Semenova M., / Series WP BRP "Financial Economics". 2024. No. 94/FE/2024.
This paper explores the impact of board gender diversity on bank performance during the
COVID-19 crisis. Using data from 87 European banks from 2015 to 2021, we show that the
presence of women on bank boards had a positive impact on bank profitability during the
COVID-19 crisis. This effect is more pronounced in countries where the morbidity rate ...
Added: February 14, 2024
Arkhipova N., Karminsky A. M., Procedia Computer Science 2023 Vol. 221 P. 1091–1098
This paper investigates and defines the concept of "credit behavior". A number of factors influencing credit behaviour of the population were identified. Among them are economic factors, e.g. income and expenses, debt burden, unemployment, interest rates, etc. Another important group of factors impacting credit behavior is social aspects, i.e. level of education, social status, financial and digital ...
Added: November 17, 2023
Penikas H. I., Вопросы экономики 2023 Т. 6 С. 36–61
Впервые рассмотрен уникальный массив данных о предложении ставок по кредитам с февраля по август 2022 г. Обосновано, что такие предложения, содержащие информацию о ставке и дополнительных условиях (срок, сумма и т. д.), чаще дают более крупные банки. Проанализированы слагаемые как кредитного риска ссуды, так и риск-аппетита банка. Показано, что банки, оценивающие кредитный риск для нормативов ...
Added: June 9, 2023
Afanasev V., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2023 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 64–77
The author tested the hypothesis that default prediction based on financial data may be inapplicable to Russian service sector organizations by analyzing the differences in the accuracy of models based solely on financial data for service providers from Russia and developed European countries. Logistic regression, Random Forest and K-nearest neighbors machine learning methods were used as modeling ...
Added: May 21, 2023
Маракуева М. А., Финансы и бизнес 2021 Т. 17 № 4 С. 3–17
The article discusses the most common mistakes in banking practice when constructing scoring models for assessing the credit risk of individuals. For a detail description, we have selected the most significant ones from the point of view of generating retail profit. With the example of logistic regression we show how much the price of each ...
Added: April 8, 2023
Pomazanov M. V., Риск-менеджмент в кредитной организации 2022 Т. 48 № 4 С. 31–39
Описанный подход к валидации риск-менеджмента розничного портфеля применялся в крупнейших банках и дал безупречно обоснованный результат, ускоривший коррекцию риск-политик в существенных сегментах розничных продуктов вплоть до закрытия одних и расширения планов размещения других. На основе оценки экономической выгоды от усиления риск-менеджмента с учетом текущих и плановых объемов могут быть обоснованно увеличены бюджеты на расширение аналитического ...
Added: December 20, 2022
Khasyanova S. Y., Вопросы статистики 2022 Т. 29 № 5 С. 96–109
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the Covid-19 pandemic affected the stability of Russian banks .To achieve this goal, an economic and statistical analysis of the risk and liquidity indicators of the Russian banking sector for the period 2008-2020 was performed. The analysis was based on the methodology for assessing the financial ...
Added: November 24, 2022
Цехомский Н. В., Наумцева Е. И., Кудлай В. А. et al., Банковское дело 2022 № 9 С. 30–38
Статья посвящена анализу развития рынка синдицированного кредитования в Российской Федерации и исследованию практических аспектов применения нового инструмента российского вторичного рынка синдицированного кредитования – финансирования участия в кредите (займе). Установление правовых основ в отношении такого нового механизма и расширение палитры инструментов вторичного рынка, доступных участникам российских сделок синдицированного кредитования, создало потенциал для дальнейшего развития отечественного рынка синдицированного ...
Added: November 14, 2022