Моделирование государственной состоятельности постсоциалистических стран

Политическая экспертиза: ПОЛИТЭКС. 2012. Т. 8. № 1. С. 238–264.

Stukal D., Khavenson T.

The paper is focused on methodology of modeling state capacity developed within Research Project 47.0 Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis (including QCA) of Factors of Development and Decline of Statemanship of Socialist and Post-Socialist Countries in Europe and Asia at the Second Half of the XX Century and the Beginning of the XXI Century, carried out at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics. We discuss the importance of measuring state capacity in the context of comparative politics and present approaches to the construction of vector indices of state capacity and its typology. We also review contemporary approaches to latent variables measurement and analyze difficulties of their application in small-N research. Then, a combination of principal component and cluster analyses are proposed as an alternative. Finally, we use Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) based on Boolean algebra to reveal factors influencing state capacity in post-communist countries, and discuss preliminary results of the project in progress.

Keywords: государство, Boolean algebra, state, state capacity, measurement, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, qualitative comparative analysis, государственная состоятельность, измерение, качественный сравнительный анализ, кластерный анализ, метод главных компонент, Булева алгебра

Publication based on the results of: An Analysis of the Factors behind the Development and Decline of Stateness in Socialist and Post-Socialist Countries of Europe and Asia from the Second Half of the 20th Century to the beginning of the 21st Century, through the Use of QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) (2011)