Особенности и интенсивность распространения COVID-19 в странах большой экономики

Вопросы статистики. 2020. Т. 27. № 6. С. 86–104.

Chetverikov V.

The article focuses on determining the unique features and intensity of Covid-19 spread in large economies, using mathematical and statistical tools. According to international statistics and using the example of 24 countries, each producing more than 1% of the world GDP at least one year between 1980 and 2019, the author carried out a preliminary analysis of geographical distribution and spread of the viral pandemic, that in 2020 overtook almost the whole world.
It is suggested the data for these countries be grouped into three types of scenarios, dividing them into several options. The work uses time series for three indicators, calculated per 1 million of the country’s population. Two of these indicators reflect, respectively, the levels of infection and incidence of coronavirus cases, and the third - daily growth of COVID-19 cases. Such a system of indicators allows, according to the author, to adequately determine emerging trends and is convenient for comparing the unique features and intensity pandemic spread in different countries.
The article presents a hypothesis about the possible reasons for the synchronization of trends for different countries in which the same type of scenario came true. It is demonstrated that the often-used case-fatality rate is not very informative in conditions when the pandemic is far from ending. A more illustrative indicator of healthcare system mobilization capacity as a whole in the face of global challenges is the infection fatality rate per 1 million of the country’s population. The ranking of all 24 countries by this indicator significantly differs from the Global Health Security Index ranking, published in 2019.
After the conclusion, in the appendix to the article, the author provides illustrations in the form of graphs tracking the pandemic spread in the countries under review, as well as brief information on particular aspects of the Republic of Korea response to managing and combating the most dangerous infection, which is different from both temporary but harsh restrictive measures for the population in the PRC and relatively mild measures implemented in many countries of the world.

Keywords: временные ряды, medical statistics, медицинская статистика, nonstationary time series, тренды 2020, оценка летальности, trends in 2020, mortality assessment