Доля молодежи в общей численности взрослого населения как фактор интенсивности ненасильственных протестов: опыт количественного анализа

Полис. Политические исследования. 2021. № 3. С. 166–181.

Romanov D., Meshcherina K., Korotayev A.

Studies in political demography suggest that there should be a positive correlation between the increased share of youth in the total population (‘youth bulges’) and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. However, a correlation analysis (without adding any control variables) between the youth bulges and the intensity of non-violent protests demonstrates unexpected results, since in this case we find a statistically significant negativecorrelation. It is shown that this is due to the sociopolitical, sociocultural and economic modernization factors. In the long run, modernization, through a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy, leads to the population ageing and reduction in the share of youth in the total adult population, which by itself acts as a factor reducing the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. But, on the other hand, modernization gives rise to other powerful factors, such as democratization, urbanization, and the expansion of formal education, which are more than able to compensate the ‘youth bulge’ decline These theoretical expectations have been confirmed by our tests. After the introduction of respective control variables, ‘youth bulges’ turn out to be a factor increasing the intensity of protests, while without these controls they become a predictor of the relatively low intensity of non-violent protests. Thus, our tests show that a high proportion of young people in the total population, all other things being equal, is nevertheless a factor of the increased intensity of anti-government demonstrations; thus, without a decrease in ‘youth bulges’, modernization would have led to a significantly more pronounced increase in the intensity of non-violent protests.

Keywords: модернизация, политическая нестабильность, политическая демография, Social modernization, political instability, non-violent protests, political demography, ненасильственные протесты