Практическое применение отдельных инструментов оценки финансовой нестабильности экономики региона

Региональная экономика: теория и практика. 2019. Т. 17. № 8. С. 1540–1556.

Граница Ю. В.

Thing. Analysis of existing and development of copyright methods for assessing the instability of the regional economy

Goals. The study of economic and statistical tools adequate to predict the financial instability of the regional economic system. Specification of models of economic indicators of financial instability, evaluation of their parameters, quality control of models and interpretation of the results.

Methodology. Statistical, design-constructive and economic-mathematical methods and the corresponding methods of data analysis were used.

Results. Identified a certain set of factors that influence the onset of a recession. Using different methods, the volatility of economic indicators that affect the financial instability of the regional economy has been determined, three alternative models have been constructed, which allow to determine the variability of economic indicators.

The smallest confidence interval of the forecast was obtained when calculating the cost estimate of risk, and the most optimistic forecast for one year was made using an integrated autoregressive model with a first-order moving average.

Building a regression model led to a larger confidence interval of the predicted value of the economic indicator in comparison with other models.

An adequate logit model was built to predict a recession, where growth rates of employment, balanced financial result and per capita income were used as regressors.

Findings.

In analyzing the volatility of economic indicators, fractal analysis and the calculation of the cost measure of risk have a significant effect.

The used logit models allow to get a significant result if, as regressors, a set of social and economic indicators characterizing the public sector of the region's economy in a compartment is defined with the business sector.

Keywords: рецессия, волатильность, регион, финансовая нестабильность, фрактальный анализ