Исследование зависимости потребления электроэнергии и температуры в России: региональный разрез

Известия РАН. Энергетика. 2019. № 1. С. 15–27.

Гордиенко А. С., Lozinskaia A. M., Тетерина Д. В., Shenkman E.

Russian energy system is one of the largest among centralized ones in the world. For electricity consumption planning it is essential to consider heterogeneity of energy system areas in terms of both consumption structure and climate conditions. In this paper, the relationship of electricity consumption and air temperature is investigated on the data for 64 Russian regions. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to form homogeneous groups of regions: three temperature clusters are retrieved. Bearing in mind different electricity needs in regions, piecewise regression with endogenous reference temperature is estimated for each temperature cluster. In all clusters both cooling and heating effects are clearly observable but reference temperature differs. For the clusters of hot and middle climate regions cooling effect prevails, while heating effect dominates in the cold regions cluster. These effects consideration in energy consumption planning may result in a higher quality of forecasting. This is of a great importance for wholesale electricity market agents and functioning of Russian energy system as a whole.

Keywords: wholesale electricity market, оптовый рынок электроэнергии и мощности, cooling effect, heating effect, temperature clusters, температурные кластеры, эффект обогрева, эффект охлаждения