With limited energy resources and increased costs for their extraction, to meet the growing demand, it is necessary to search for sources of supply growth and to analyze various approaches to the development of energy. World energy leaders pay great attention to traditional sources, but also show interest in renewable energy technologies (renewables). The reason for this interest is not only the depletion of old ones and the absence of new large deposits. This is dictated by environmental requirements, the need to diversify energy supply sources, energy security policy and the formation of strategic reserves, as well as companies' readiness for modern trends in energy and the development of new technological solutions. The development of renewables is becoming a factor of competition for technological leadership. According to the draft of the energy strategy of Russia until 2035 (ES-2035), the technologies of the "energy revolution" include renewables and energy storage. It is projected that the generation of energy using renewables, equal to 1% of the country's total energy generation, will be achieved by 2020, and this conflicts with declarations of the importance of renewables.
Russian oil and gas companies are represented in corporate strategies as energy, which should mean increased attention not only to the hydrocarbon production sector, but also the development of other energy sectors, including renewable energy sources. Modern development strategies and programs sparingly reflect measures to develop alternative energy sources. This is due to the fact that the efficiency of the proposed green technologies is still low and for Russian conditions, the generation of energy by traditional methods is more effective than renewables: no additional resources, special efforts and innovations, and creativity of managerial decisions are required.
Russian companies, unlike the Western ones, invest little in the development of "green" energy at the industrial scale. Among the renewable assets, for example, BP has the largest biogas station in Brazil, 16 onshore wind farms in the US, and solar power plants in Germany and the United States. In the long term, the lack of such a direction of investment can mean the loss of technological prospects by Russian energy companies and even the withdrawal from the position of world energy leaders.
To ensure the share of renewable energy in the energy balance in accordance with the project ES-2035 (more than 3% of the total power generation by 2035), it is necessary to invest at least $ 1.7 billion annually. Achieving 3% by 2035 will only bring Russia closer to the indicators already achieved by developed economies.
The development of public-private partnerships, other instruments of state support, the acceleration of technological progress will narrow the gap in technological development, reduce the likelihood of Russian companies losing their share in the world energy market and the risk of occupying their place by those who are already actively investing in the development of clean energy.
Russian energy system is one of the largest among centralized ones in the world. For electricity consumption planning it is essential to consider heterogeneity of energy system areas in terms of both consumption structure and climate conditions. In this paper, the relationship of electricity consumption and air temperature is investigated on the data for 64 Russian regions. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to form homogeneous groups of regions: three temperature clusters are retrieved. Bearing in mind different electricity needs in regions, piecewise regression with endogenous reference temperature is estimated for each temperature cluster. In all clusters both cooling and heating effects are clearly observable but reference temperature differs. For the clusters of hot and middle climate regions cooling effect prevails, while heating effect dominates in the cold regions cluster. These effects consideration in energy consumption planning may result in a higher quality of forecasting. This is of a great importance for wholesale electricity market agents and functioning of Russian energy system as a whole.
The power consumption is determined by various factors. It is affected by time of day, day of week, and of season. The price of electricity is determined by the controller, and can affect the schedule of consumption of various consumers. And this formulae depends essentially on the concrete region. Forecast of consumption may influence both the tactics of consumers and producers of electricity and the strategy of the regulator. The impact will be stronger, when more reliable the forecast. One of the non-recurrent factors is the weather. We developed operational computer technology short-term forecasting of hourly electricity consumption for 63 subjects of the Russian Federation, using the short-term forecast of the air temperature. We evaluate the parameters of our algorithm according to information from archives, which describes electricity consumption and air temperature. The MAPE error obtained forecast the average for the subjects is 3.2% while the forecast for 1 day and 3.7% in the second. The impact of the weather forecast into the error decreasing corresponds to the reduction of the forecast lead-time of 1 day.
The paper analyses the relevance and methodological basis of the hierarchical approach to the solution of direct and inverse tasks of state pricing policy in the electric power sector as a tool for investment planning and development management, including both the substantiation of the affordable level of prices and tariffs and the assessment of consequences of economic decisions of the state (as a market regulator) in application and modification of competitive and tariff-based pricing mechanisms. The paper includes the description of the required and forecasted revenues' comparative analysis method applied for the electric power sector, its segments and energy companies under the variation of regulator's deci- sions. Requirements to the modeling tools and input information for the financial analysis and forecasts are also defined.
Discrete-continuous wholesale electricity market operating model with cross-effect of electricity price and load is suggested in the article. Model identification method is proposed and applied on the united power system of the Urals’ data. The significance of estimated parameters is proved by stable behavior of parameters, performed on subsample. The calculations are performed on base of weekly data from 2011 to 2014 year and the seasonal effects are included in the model due to weather variables. The results indicate that hypothesis of inelasticity of demand is not rejected and significance of such technological parameter as frequency is confirmed. The hypothesis of non-linear influence of temperature on electricity demand is not rejected.
The paper analyzes the effectiveness of balancing the interests of power consumers and suppliers by the market mechanisms appeared after the power sector reform as well as their ability to from the rational investment behavior of the generating companies (GenCos). Special attention is paid to the heterogeneity of financial situation in power generation, where differences in profitability of GenCos create risks for their stable development and start of their assets modernization that was delayed for the last 15–20 years. The lack of competitive mechanisms for the proper investment signals and risks of existing regulatory mechanisms guaranteeing the return on investments are also discussed. The paper presents requirements for the integrated assessment of economic consequences of the market devel opment scenarios taking into account the growth of new competitive area in energy supply based on the distributed generation sources.
The fuel aspect of the efficiency of the distributed cogeneration is considered taking into account the wide adoption of highly efficient combined-cycle technologies for centralized power generation and wide adoption of modern hot water boiler with high efficiency. The criterion of fuel-efficiency cogeneration units is derived. It is shown that improving the efficiency of power plants and district heating plants will decrease the effect of fuel economy from small CHP located in centralized generation zones. It is shown that cogeneration plants will always be effective from the point of view of fuel economy in decentralized generation zones, but with the increase in efficiency of gas turbines and gas and diesel engines the comparative effectiveness of cogeneration will decrease. The diagrams of dependence of fuel savings on efficiency of power plants in centralized and decentralized generation zones are shown. It is concluded that with the development of technologies of electricity and heat generation, both centralized and decentralized, the potential of fuel savings from cogeneration on small CHP will decrease, whereas the influence of economic, infrastructural and time factors will increase.