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Материалы VII международной социологической Грушинской конференции «Навстречу будущему. Прогнозирование в социологических исследованиях», 15—16 марта 2017 г. / отв. ред. А. В. Кулешова. — М. : АО «ВЦИОМ», 2017. — 1886 с.
M. :
2017.
Editor-in-chief: А. В. Кулешова
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Астафьева Е.В., Турунцева М. Ю., Вестник Евразийской науки 2025 Т. 17 № 6
В работе исследуются возможности использования простых процедур корректировки и объединения прогнозов. Мы оцениваем влияние применения этих процедур (методов простой корректировки, простых и регрессионных методов комбинирования) на качество прогнозов показателей российского экспорта во все страны и импорта из всех стран. В общей сложности мы использовали четыре метода корректировки, 9 методов простого комбинирования и семь регрессионных методов. ...
Added: August 21, 2026
Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
Added: June 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This work is devoted to a theoretical explanation of the Easterlin paradox, according to which long-term economic growth does not make average level of people's happiness increasing. By happiness, we mean the intensity of emotions people experience while comparing their new income with its expected value, or the target income with its original value. In the first case, ...
Added: May 31, 2026
Sizov A., Rodionova M., Sedashov E. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2026. No. 1.
Rapid development of surveillance technologies is one of the most socially important consequences of the digital age. This paper investigates the factors determining consent to surveillance of various types of personal data and contributes to rapidly growing research on citizens perceptions of surveillance practices. Relying on a comprehensive survey experiment, we study the effects of ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Карцева М. А., Peresetsky A., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2026. № WP2/2026/01.
This study examines the association between health status among elderly individuals living alone and pet ownership (cats, dogs). We employ data from the “Time Use Survey” conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in 2019, which contains information on more than 10,000 elderly individuals living alone aged 60 or older in Russia, including data ...
Added: May 8, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
Троцкая И. А., Львова О. А., Короткова Е. В. et al., В кн.: Медицинское образование, наука, практика : Сборник статей X Международной научно-практической конференции молодых ученых и студентов, 22-23 апреля 2025 г. Т.2.: Екатеринбург: ФГБОУ ВО УГМУ Минздрава России, 2025. С. 673–679.
Pediatric ischemic stroke is considered to be a rare condition. Correct recognition of the acute symptoms
and further monitoring of the dynamics of them may allow predicting the child's development and further adaptation. The aim of the study was to provide clinical and imaging features of the acute period of ischemic stroke with debut at an ...
Added: March 2, 2026
Карелина М. Г., Mkhitarian V., Финансы и бизнес 2025 Т. 21 № 4 С. 49–65
Дизельное топливо играет важную роль в российской экономике, его значимость обусловлена высокой эффективностью, экономичностью, надежностью и широким спектром применения. Россия один из крупнейших вмире экспортеров дизельного топлива, что обеспечивает значительные поступления в бюджет страны и является геополитическим инструментом в рамках глобальных трансформационных процессов. Статистическая оценка развития российского рынка дизельного топлива в представленной работе проводилась в ...
Added: February 20, 2026
Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Демографическое обозрение 2025 Т. 12 № 4 С. 100–122
Formal demographic analysis, including the construction of life tables, standardization of indicators, decomposition of changes, and modeling of demographic processes, requires complex calculations and data manipulation. Despite the advances in methods, many of them have not yet been implemented as ready-to-use, convenient tools in modern statistical environments. To address this issue, we present the demor ...
Added: December 30, 2025
Dorkhanov I., Sokolov B., / Series OSF "SocArXiv". 2025.
This study investigates the relationship between individual religiosity and attitudes towards immigrants of different religious backgrounds in Europe. Using data from the 7th wave of the European Social Survey (2014-2015), we examine the influence of individual denomination and subjective religiosity level on hostility towards Muslim immigrants and the importance of immigrants’ Christian background. Our analysis, ...
Added: December 23, 2025
Nastina E., Sokolov B., / Series OSF "SocArXiv". 2025.
We argue that a classification-based approach to measuring cultural differences across countries or subnational regions is a promising complement, and sometimes an alternative, to the widely used dimensional method in cross-cultural research. The latter summarises cultural variation using continuous dimensions, for example, Hofstede’s famous individualism-collectivism dimension. However, this approach relies on strong parametric assumptions, which are ...
Added: December 23, 2025
Korsunava V., Sokolov B., / Series OSF "SocArXiv". 2025.
Non-probability web surveys offer several advantages over face-to-face (F2F) interviews—they are cheaper, faster, more accessible, and reduce interviewer effects and desirability bias. As such, they are increasingly popular in both academic and commercial research. However, they often yield demographically biased samples, raising concerns about the accuracy of the resulting public opinion estimates. Most studies on ...
Added: December 23, 2025
Kopnova E., Журавлева К. А., Коряков И. В. et al., Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Экономика 2025 № 1 С. 36–46
he article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modeling methods to evaluate the forecast of ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Пермь: Пермский государственный национальный исследовательский университет, 2024.
This collection presents the proceedings of the Ninth All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference with International Participation, "Artificial Intelligence in Solving Current Social and Economic Problems of the 21st Century," which was held October 17–18, 2024, in Perm. The collection is intended for researchers and educators, lecturers, postgraduate and master's students, undergraduates, and anyone interested in ...
Added: November 19, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series Soc " SocArXiv". 2025.
Research of the impact of kin alloparenting on reproduction mainly focuses on mother’s parents and parents-in-law. The impact on fertility of extended families and the alloparental help with childcare they can provide has received much less attention. Moreover, there is an important lacuna in the existing studies of this problem, as it is mostly approached ...
Added: November 11, 2025
В.В. Чистяков, / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP7 "Математические методы анализа решений в экономике, бизнесе и политике". 2022. № 9.
Для понимания какого-либо качества, как правило, выбирается, некоторая подходящая для его оценки шкала (скажем, от 1 до 5), и, согласно этой шкале, качеству присваиваются одна или несколько оценок. Эти оценки затем преобразуются в одну, “усредненную”, оценку; например, выбирается среднее арифметическое. Так, несданная сессия с тремя баллами 5, 2 и 5 “характеризуется’’ средней оценкой хорошо: (5+2+5)/3 = ...
Added: November 4, 2025
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 10 С. 131–154
The paper summarizes machine-learning (ML) methods most relevant to macroeconomics and assesses their performance in forecasting and nowcasting key macro indicators. Despite rapid methodological progress and a surge of publications over the past 25 years, gains in forecast accuracy with traditional statistical (economic, financial, and survey) data remain modest. ML models often outperform naïve and ...
Added: October 12, 2025
Fabrykant M., / Series SocArXiv "SocArXiv". 2025.
This article explores to what extent the cross-national differences in pride reflect objective differences in countries’ performance in these spheres. The empirical study conducted to answer this question is based on the survey data from the International Social Survey Program – National Identity covering 32 countries and quantitative indicators of countries’ achievements in technology from ...
Added: October 7, 2025
Малахов В. С., Симон М. Е., Летняков Д. Э. et al., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2020.
The notion of “political accommodation” applied to the theory and practice of managing cultural diversity could enrich the Russian academic dictionary. Liberal democratic states invented specific mechanisms for political accommodation of cultural differences. Thanks to these mechanisms, the part of the population of a democratic state that is not ready to dissolve into the ethnocultural ...
Added: September 26, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2025. No. 1.
This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to ...
Added: September 12, 2025
Karacharovskiy V., Социологические исследования 2025 № 6 С. 3–14
The article evaluates the possibility of forecasting mass social attitudes based on the interest of the population for the eras in the development of the country. Historical eras and their symbols are considered as comparison standards, temporal analogues of reference groups that provide the mass consciousness with samples of “reserve” standards of living and standards ...
Added: August 12, 2025
Семаков С. Л., Семаков А. С., М.: Физматлит, 2012.
Рассматриваются методы прогнозирования и оперативного управления процессом продаж товара в торговых сетях. Работа будет интересна аналитикам и менеджерам торговых сетей, а также студентам вузов, предполагающим свою дальнейшую деятельность в качестве сотрудников торговых сетей. ...
Added: August 5, 2025