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The modest demographic results of pronatalist policy against the background of the long-term evolution of fertility in Russia
Демографическое обозрение. 2016. P. 4–46.
Editor of translation: Zakharov S. V.
The idea of an extraordinary growth in fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the government after 2006 to stimulate fertility. The author’s viewpoint is more reserved. There are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to view the future of Russian fertility through rose-colored glasses. With this paper, we continue our previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility, incorporating the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators over a few decades, as well as developing some approaches to cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. The article consists of two parts. In the first part, we examine period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, we analyse cohort fertility indicators of generations of women whose actual and expected reproductive activity has been occurring in the second half of the twentieth and the first decades of the twenty-first centuries.
Basalaev A., Rarovskii A., Journal of Singularities 2026 Vol. 30 P. 61–80
Saito theory associates to an isolated singularity rich structure that plays an important role in mirror symmetry. In this note we construct Saito theory for A and D type Landau-Ginzburg orbifolds. Namely, for the pairs (f,G), where f defines an isolated singularity of A and D type and G is a group of symmetries of ...
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Proskuryakova L. N., Asia-Pacific Tech Monitor 2026 Vol. 43 No. 2 P. 13–24
Innovative financing tools and models have proved their efficiency in supporting the adoption and scale-up of emerging technologies. They have been instrumental in different regions, including the Asia-Pacific region, which stands at the forefront of technological innovation. Studies point to several persistent emerging technological constraints that include high upfront capital costs, perceived risks, and limited ...
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Ходунов А. С., Хайруллин Т. Р., Korotayev A., Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право 2026 Т. 19 № 1 С. 159–178
The article is devoted to the civil war in Sudan, which has been going on for more than two years and has caused enormous casualties and destruction throughout the country. The vast majority of schools and hospitals have been destroyed or put out of operation, which has had an extremely negative impact on the development ...
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Rybakov M., Shkatov D., Journal of Logic and Computation 2026 Vol. 36 No. 6 Article exag026
We prove Pi-1-1-hardness, and thus lack of recursive axiomatizability, of constant-domain modal predicate logics defined by a class of Dedekind complete linear Kripke frames containing a frame with an infinitely increasing chain of worlds. The result holds even for the language with one unary predicate letter, one propositional letter, and two individual variables. ...
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Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Artemov S. V. et al., ИСИЭЗ ВШЭ, 2026.
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Селянин Ф. И., Moscow Mathematical Journal 2026 Vol. 26 No. 2 P. 167–187
Minkowski mixed volume of n subpolytopes D1,…,Dn of a polytope P⊂Rn clearly does not exceed the normalized volume n!Vol(P). Equality holds if and only if the subpolytopes are interlaced, i.e., each proper face F⊊P intersects at least dim(F)+1 of the polytopes Di. Efficiently computing mixed volumes for more general collections of subpolytopes is crucial for estimating the complexity of numerically solving polynomial systems.
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Asia and Africa today 2026 Vol. 6 P. 80–86
This theoretical article examines the persistent problem of the “leaky pipeline” for women in
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Kazaryan M., Dunin-Barkowski P., Bychkov B. et al., International Mathematics Research Notices 2026 Vol. 14 Article rnag146
We prove a recent conjecture of the fourth named author with P. Norbury that states a system of universal polynomial relations among the kappa classes on the moduli spaces of algebraic curves. The proof involves localization and materialization analysis of the spin Gromov–Witten theory of the projective line and is dictated by Z 2 -equivariant ...
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Kazaryan M., Dunin-Barkowski P., Bychkov B. et al., Communications in Mathematical Physics 2026 Vol. 407 No. 69
We prove that for any initial data on a genus zero spectral curve the cor responding correlation differentials of topological recursion are KP integrable. As an application we prove KP integrability of partition functions associated via ELSV-type formulas to the r-th roots of the twisted powers of the log canonical bundles ...
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Рождественская Е.Ю., Демиденко С. Ю., Иванова Е. Ю. et al., Социологические исследования 2026 № 7 С. 44–59
The article presents materials from a discussion of approaches to studying ego-documents and the practice of their use in Russian sociological research. The discussion included the theoretical and methodological origins of this research area, N.N. Kozlova's contribution to its development, and the specifics of the formation of a scientific research school in the study of ...
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Ермоленко Г. А., Кожевников С. Б., М.: Эксмо, 2026.
Socio‑humanitarian knowledge helps to master the social norms and values of Russian civilization. Each module of social studies is linked to a specific sphere of human social life, to activities aimed at fulfilling a person’s spiritual needs and social interests. Recognizing the social nature of one’s own needs is an important step towards understanding oneself, ...
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Gromov V., Переслегин С. Б., Переслегина Е. Б. et al., СПб.: Полакс, 2026.
Механизм происходящих в мире изменений носит эволюционный, а не экологический характер. Иначе говоря, Человечество столкнулось с кризисом развития, который имеет три независимые составляющие: кризис индустриального общества (фазовый кризис), кризис научного мышления (эпистемный кризис) и кризис формата существования разума (социосистемный кризис). Доклад посвящён аспектам этого триединого кризиса и возможным путям его преодоления, не сводящимся к первичному ...
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Devyatov R. A., Mathematical notes 2026 Vol. 119 No. 3 P. 782–786
Let G/B be a flag variety over ℂ, where G is a simple algebraic group with a simply laced Dynkin diagram, and B is a Borel subgroup. We say that the product of classes of Schubert divisors in the Chow ring is multiplicity free if it is possible to multiply it by a Schubert class ...
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Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
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Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
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This article examines changes in the quantum and structural characteristics of period and cohort fertility in Russia in the context of pro-natalist demographic policy pursued since 2006. The study assesses the significance of recent decades’ shifts for total fertility, the age profile of mothers, and their distribution by number of children born. The analysis draws ...
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Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
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Власов С. А., Nevalennyi M., Сафиулин Р. Р. et al., / Банк России. Серия Аналитическая записка "Материалы Банка России". 2026.
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Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
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Bogatyrev R., Sandomirskaia M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2026. No. 19(1).
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Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
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Синяков А. А., Зверева В., Шелованова Т. И., / Центральный банк Российской Федерации. Серия 132 / 2024 "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2024. № 132.
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