Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector

NRU Higher School of Economics , 2017. No. WP BRP 76/STI/2017.

Gokhberg L., Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., E. Tochilina, Chulok A., Timofeev A., Lavrynenko A. S.

The paper discloses a new approach to emerging technologies identification, which strongly relies on capacity of big data analysis, namely text mining augmented by syntactic analysis techniques. It discusses the wide context of the task of identifying emerging technologies in a systemic and timely manner, including its place in the methodology of foresight and future-oriented technology analysis, its use in horizon scanning exercises, as well as its relation to the field of technology landscape mapping and tech mining. The concepts of technology, emerging technology, disruptive technology and other related terms are assessed from the semantic point of view. Existing approaches to technology identification and technology landscape mapping (in wide sense, including entity linking and ontology-building for the purposes of effective STI policy) are discussed, and shortcomings of currently available studies on emerging technologies in agriculture and food sector (A&F) are analyzed. The opportunities of the new big-data-augmented methodology are shown in comparison to existing results, both globally and in Russia. As one of the practical results of the study, the integrated ontology of currently emerging technologies in A&F sector is introduced. The directions and possible criteria of further enhancement and refinement of proposed methodology are contemplated, with special attention to use of bigger volumes of data, machine learning and ontology-mining / entity linking techniques for the maximum possible automation of the analytical work in the discussed field. The practical implication of the new approach in terms of its effectiveness and efficiency for evidence-based STI policy and corporate strategic planning are shortly summed up as well.

Keywords: форсайт, сельское хозяйство, инновационная политика, научно-техническая политика, foresight, agriculture, аграрно-промышленный комплекс, STI policy, стратегическое планирование, Strategic planning, text mining, emerging technologies, возникающие технологии, horizon scanning, текст-майнинг, сканирование горизонтов, food sector, tech mining, STI landscape mapping,, пищевой сектор, картирование научно-технологического развития, Russian Federation

Publication based on the results of: Study of global technology trends: development of quantitative approaches for trend analysis (2017)