Изменения в траекториях формирования семьи россиян и факторы, определяющие эти изменения

Социологический журнал. 2018.

Artamonova A.

Last few decades, demographers have observed changes in the organization of the individual's life course. This study is devoted to comparing Russia with other European countries in terms of matrimonial behavior modernization, identifying clusters of Russians depending on their family formation trajectories, analyzing the spread of modern trajectories among generations of Russians, finding out factors of choosing each trajectory. Parameters of family formation behavior available in the second wave of the international survey "Generation and Gender Program" demonstrated that Russia follows one way of modernization with European countries. The results of cluster analysis based on the panel data of Russian part of "Generation and Gender Survey" revealed 9 clusters of Russians according to the sequence and time of first cohabitation, marriage and firstborn. The trajectories "Early marriage, birth of a child" and "Late marriage, birth of a child" are the most common. More than 60% of the respondents from soviet generations followed these two trajectories. In case of modern generations, they were displaced by trajectories, where early or late cohabitation precedes marriage and the trajectory "Cohabitation, birth of a child". The frequencies of choosing the other four trajectories are statistically stable for different generations. Multinomial logistic regression showed that a type of settlement, level of education, ages of separation from parents and the first job, gender, generation and parents’ matrimonial experience are the factors of the family formation trajectory’s choice.

Keywords: демография, demography, жизненный путь, второй демографический переход, поколения, Second Demographic Transition, life course, generations, family formation trajectory, траектория формирования семьи

Publication based on the results of: Разработка и апробация методик анализа демографических последовательностей (2016)