Конечный эффект мер демографической политики 1980-х в России

Мир России: Социология, этнология. 2016. Т. 25. № 2. С. 68–97.

Андреев Евгений Михайлович

A routine analysis of the demographic situation is usually based on indicators calculated for calendar periods. Using cumulative indicators such as total fertility rate and life expectancy, it is possible to characterize the general trends of these demographic processes. However, such an approach does not properly reveal the changes in the number of children a woman has during the course of her life or the real life expectancy of a given generation. In other words, a proper assessment of the effects of demographic policies must rely on information about real (rather than hypothetical) cohorts. Such an assessment is only possible 20–30 years after the implementation of policies, because it takes time to collect the necessary data. Therefore it is only now that we can finally assess the effects the demographic policies of the 1980s. The analysis presented in this article utilizes official statistics on births and deaths from 1946 to 2013 and official estimates of the population age-sex composition between 1959 and 2014. For the period 1946–1958 we use unofficial estimates of the age-sex composition. Using this data for different real generations we calculate age-specific fertility rates, age-sex-specific mortality rates from all causes combined and from some causes of deaths. By exploring these indicators we find that the immediate effect of demographic policies of the 1980s was quite impressive: in 1987 the total fertility rate was at its highest and life expectancy at birth improved to the level of the mid-1960s. Additional positive consequences are found in changes in mortality and the fertility of several real generations. Nevertheless, long-term effects are less visible, bordering on negligible. These findings are discussed in the context of current demographic policies and conclude with tentative predictions regarding their long-term effects.

Keywords: демографическая политика, материнский капитал, maternity capital, population reproduction in Russia, real generations, demographic policies, effectiveness of demographic politics, anti-alcohol campaign, воспроизводство населения России, реальное поколение, эффект мер демографической политики, антиалкогольная кампания

Publication based on the results of: Demographic trends in Russia and in the OECD countries: comparative analysis and implications for policy (2015)