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Профессия мигрант: как опыт пространственной мобильности определяет намерения на переезд?
This article examines the relationship between migration activity and migration intentions among Russian city residents. It is a follow-up to an earlier study that focused on the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents and the characteristics of their places of residence as possible factors influencing migration intentions. Migration activity is considered as the combination of an individual's lifetime experience of permanent migration and various forms of spatial mobility, including participation in temporary labor migration and current trips within and outside the region of residence.
The study uses data from a street survey of 8,200 residents of 27 cities (mainly small and medium-sized) in 13 regions of Russia. Regression models were used to identify statistical dependence. The mutual influence of possible predictors of migration intentions was assessed using models with interaction variables.
It was found that past migration significantly increases the likelihood of further migration intentions, especially among return migrants and migrants who have been living there for a long time, while newcomers show less willingness to move again. Temporary labor migration is a significant factor: the most evident intentions to move are observed not among long-distance commuters themselves, but among their family members; at the same time, the specific destination of mobile workers' trips is not significantly related to migration intentions. Regular trips outside the region, especially for tourism purposes, are associated with stronger migration aspirations, while visits to relatives, by contrast, are associated with a lower desire to move. The use of models with interaction variables indicates that some forms of migration activity can supplement each other's effects.
The results obtained confirm the findings of other studies regarding the ambiguous relationship between spatial mobility and migration intentions. The specific characteristics of the survey sample, which is dominated by small and medium-sized cities, with large cities largely unrepresented, should be considered.