Влияние температуры на сезонное развитие древесных растений в Центральном Сихотэ-Алине при изменении климата

Лесоведение. 2025. № 4. С. 515–524.

Иванов А. В., Марченко А. А., Бондарчук С. Н., Могилева А. В., Нестерова И. А., Zamolodchikov D.

For the first time, a variability analysis of phenological dates of woody plant development in connection with climate change was conducted for the conditions of Primorsky Krai. The study is based on a continuous (from 1987 to 2022) series of phenological observations for five tree species from the Nature Chronicle of the Sikhote-Alin Reserve. According to data from the Terney weather station, a trend for warming by 0.29°С/10 years was revealed. The best predictor for the shift in phenological dates and changes in the duration of the growing season turned out to be the average spring air temperature (R2 = 0.30—0.69). Another good predictor for phenological shifts was the average annual temperature and the sum of active temperatures on May 1 (temperature threshold 0°С). Temperature sensitivity for the dates of spring phenophases, calculated based on the average spring temperature for the studied tree species, was 3—6 days/°С. The flowering phase is the most sensitive to air temperature. The best ability to indicate climate changes among the species under consideration was found in the common bird cherry (Padus avium Mill.). No significant trends in the change of autumn phenological data have been identified over the years of observation. Over 35 years of observation, plants have not shown any clear signs of phenological development adaptation to increasing temperatures.

Keywords: изменение климата, climate change, Temperature sensitivity, phenological observations, Manchurian birch, Mongolian oak, bird cherry, Japanese angelica tree, Japanese tree lilac, vegetation period, фенологические наблюдения, береза маньчжурская, дуб монгольский, черемуха обыкновенная, аралия высокая, сирень амурская, вегетационный период