Complex pathways of Russian university graduates: which pathways lead upwards?

Higher Education Research and Development. 2026. Vol. 45. No. 5. P. 1375–1392.

Lukina A., Maltseva V., Rozenfeld N.

This study investigates how the complex educational and career pathways of Russian university graduates shape their subjective social mobility, advancing understanding of graduates’ outcomes in a higher education system marked by both broad access and persistent social divides. Drawing on longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of Russian youth (2011–2021), the analysis identifies and compares diverse pathways that reflect differentiated modes of higher education entry, graduate program participation, and school-to-work transitions. The findings reveal that non-linear trajectories, especially those that involve extended engagement in education together with early career experience, significantly enhance the likelihood of perceived upward mobility. The research highlights how pathways are differentiated by social origin and cognitive ability, while also demonstrating that qualification-job mismatches are associated with downward mobility. By employing sequence analysis of longitudinal data and focusing on subjective social mobility, the study advances the field by moving beyond traditional, linear conceptions of graduate success. These findings contribute to international understanding of how varied educational and career patterns interact to influence life chances in countries with high higher education attainment, and they underscore the need for new frameworks to assess social advancement in contexts of massified higher education and increasingly complex labor markets.

Keywords: высшее образование, субъективная мобильность, sequence analysis, анализ последовательностей, траектории в образовании и профессии, subjective social mobility, graduates pathways, higher education

Publication based on the results of: The formation of a national higher education system: key changes and their effects (2025)