Школы и больницы рядом с домом: влияние социальной инфраструктуры на динамику численности населения

Известия РАН. Серия географическая. 2026. Т. 90. № S1. С. 208–230.

Balaban M., Василиженко А. А., Karachurina L. B., Корж П. А., Mkrtchyan N. V., Panafidina I., Rodina O.

The dynamics of population size in settlements are determined by a wide range of factors, among which, as research shows, is the availability of educational and healthcare institutions (i.e., basic social infrastructure) within close proximity to homes of residents. A bidirectional relationship can be assumed: a decline in population size leads to a reduction of the attached contingent in schools and medical institutions, which in turn results in the optimization of walkable social infrastructure. Conversely, the closure of basic social infrastructure facilities fosters population outflow from such settlements and contributes to an overall decline in their population size. This article, based on a 10-percent sample of Russian municipalities (226 units, encompassing 16.7 thousand settlements according to the 2021 population census), evaluates the provision of basic educational and healthcare services. Provision levels are examined in relation to settlement size, whether settlements belong to the suburbs of large cities, and the characteristics of the patterns of settlement. The methods applied include descriptive statistics, regression modeling, clustering, and cartographic analysis. The results show that, contrary to expectations, the availability of educational and healthcare institutions in settlements is practically unrelated to population dynamics during the last intercensal period (2011 - 2021). Moreover, for comparatively large settlements (with more than 1,000 residents), a significant inverse relationship was observed between population dynamics and the presence of schools and medical institutions. The only exception is kindergartens, for which no such relationship was found. The findings demonstrate that in the 2010s the population dynamics of settlements depended not on the provision of social infrastructure, but primarily on their position within the center-periphery system and on the characteristics of the patterns of settlement. The article discusses the limitations of the calculations performed, the reasons for the observed relationships, and outlines directions for further research. 

Keywords: динамика численности населения, система расселения, населенные пункты, population dynamics, settlement system, basic social infrastructure, network of settlements, базовая социальная инфраструктура

Publication based on the results of: Взаимосвязь динамики численности населения и наличия объектов социальной инфраструктуры в малых городах и сельских населенных пунктах России (2025)