Epidemic Engines: A Study of the Factors Driving HIV Infection Spread and Mortality in the Regions of the Russian Federation

Population and Economics. 2025. Vol. 9. No. 1. P. 75–96.

Anton A. Nikolaev

This paper examines the socio-economic determinants of the HIV epidemic in Russian regions, focusing on morbidity and mortality rates. It addresses the following questions: What factors contribute to the development of the HIV epidemic in Russia’s regions? Which of these factors have the greatest impact on HIV-related morbidity and mortality? The study employs the principal component analysis method to reduce dimensionality and identify grouped factors. The analysis is based on extended data from HIV Infection Monitoring Form No. 61 for the years 2012–2019. As a result, ten socio-economic determinants were identified, and their statistical relationship with HIV morbidity and mortality was assessed. A significant association was found between morbidity and mortality rates and factors such as population mobility and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), similar to patterns observed in other countries experiencing an active HIV epidemic.

Keywords: смертность, ВРП, факторный анализ, mortality, ВИЧ, factor analysis, заболеваемость, morbidity, эпидемия, economic effects, epidemic, GRP, HIV, экономические эффекты, social policy assessment