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Эволюция электоральных коалиций в США: опыт трех президентских кампаний
The article analyzes the basis of electoral support of two principal candidates in the 2024 US
presidential elections in comparison with two previous campaigns, in which the Republican Party was
represented by Donald Trump. The analysis is based on data from exit polls conducted for CNN. The analysis
starts with a discussion of the role of “negative voting” (i.e., when the main motive of voting is against the
opponent of preferred candidate) in all three campaigns. It continues with research on the dynamics of
voting patterns of basic social and demographic cohorts of voters. The analysis shows that Trump received
a solid majority of votes amongst: men, voters aged 45-65, voters without a college degree. He won the
2024 elections by securing majorities in cohorts of voters with an annual income below USD 100 000, in rural
areas; and due to a broadening support of African and Latino American voters. Conversely, the Democratic
Party had advantages among women, younger age cohorts (though more narrow in 2024 than during earlier
campaigns), voters with college degrees, urban dwellers and more affluent people. The advantage in votes
by middle-class suburban dwellers in all three cases secured for the winner overall electoral victories. The
electoral basis of major US political parties (often referred to as “coalitions”) are complex. The Democratic
base includes, on one hand, those cohorts of “underprivileged” voters which historically supported the
party as the protector of their interests. However, in 2024 the Democrats lost most of the support of one of
these cohorts, i.e., the blue-collar workers. On the other hand, the Democratic base includes liberal and
progressive-minded cohorts, most of which are have confidence in life career prospects. The Republican
support base includes all the conventional conservative-leaning cohorts. Not all the people belonging to such
cohorts are radical or populist, but most of them accept Trump’s leadership style. A new “acquisition” for
the party is the majority they obtained among voters without college degrees (mostly blue-collar workers