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Динамика промышленного производства и экономический цикл в СССР и России, 1861–2012
Высшая школа экономики
,
2012.
№ WP2/2012/04.
The trajectory of the industrial output of the Russian empire – the USSR – the Russian Federation for more than 150 years has been carefully investigated through official statistics as well as dozens of alternative estimates made by Russian and foreign experts. Calculation of the aggregated “consensus” industrial production index has made it possible to date the cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Russian industry is compared with the cyclical volatility of American industry.
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы статистики 2015 № 10 С. 57-69
Using previously unpublished data stored in Russian archives, we compiled several annual time-series for Russian industry, agriculture, railroad freight transportation, and residential construction, from 1928 to 2014. We focused on indicators in physical units which had not been distorted with the incorrect price deflators of the Soviet era. Taken together, these time-series make it possible ...
Added: April 10, 2015
С. Смирнов, Вопросы экономики 2013 № 7 С. 138-153
Calculation of the aggregated “consensus” industrial production index has made it possible to date the cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Russian industry is compared ...
Added: April 29, 2013
С. Смирнов, Вопросы экономики 2013 № 6 С. 59-83
The trajectory of the industrial output of the Russian empire – the USSR – the Russian Federation for more than 150 years has been carefully investigated through official statistics as well as dozens of alternative estimates made by Russian and foreign experts. Alternative estimates are compared with official data and the usefulness and credibility of ...
Added: April 29, 2013
Andreev E. M., Hoffmann R., Carlson E. et al., European Society 2009 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 161-185
Until recently data on mortality by socioeconomic status were not available for the initial period of mortality increase in the former Soviet Union from 1965 to 1979. Newly discovered data from the Russian State Archive of Economics allow us to close this gap and to compare mortality trends in urban Latvia and several urban areas ...
Added: January 25, 2013
Anikin V. A., Вестник Института социологии 2018 Т. 27 № 4 С. 44-63
his article1 examines shifts when it comes to employment among Russians during the financial-economic crisis years of 2014–2016, as well as during the years 2017–2018, which Russian scientists have already named the “period of negative post-crisis stabilization”. This article for the most part confirms said thesis. Despite obvious success in certain aspects (for example, unemployment around ...
Added: October 20, 2018
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Russian Journal of Economics 2015 Vol. 1 No. 2 P. 130-153
In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the XX century has been a terra incognita until now. As for official statistics, at least three important reasons can be given for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) ...
Added: November 3, 2015
Smirnov S. V., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2015. No. 3.
Russia is a country with a unique history. Its economy became strictly planned in 1928; then the turbulent processes of collectivization and industrialization took place; then the arduous years of the war with Nazi Germany came; then the Cold War with its armaments race started; then the USSR crashed and the transition from planned to ...
Added: April 9, 2015
Vladimirova A., Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития 2021 Т. 4 № 4(53) С. 55-66
Russian politicians and experts often emphasize the importance of strengthening foreign trade relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), however, they give very diverse assessments of this cooperation. Thus, we present a range of statistical indicators and related infographics that allow us to explore the development of foreign trade between Russia and the ...
Added: February 27, 2024
Urnov M., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2015 № 2 (26) С. 186-190
The current economic crisis in Russia has been caused by a combination of situational and “systemic” factors. The former group of factors includes (inter alia) a fall in international oil prices; the political revolution in Ukraine; a decrease of public trust in political power institutions in 2008- 2014; and a low quality analytical support of ...
Added: October 23, 2015
Akaev A., Sadovnichii V. A., Korotayev A. et al., М. : Институт социально-политических исследований РАН, 2012
В данной книге авторы предлагают новую методологию долгосрочного социально-экономического моделирования и прогнозирования, основанную на кондратьевских больших циклах экономической конъюнктуры. Использование методологии позволяет обнаружить точки кризисов, рецессий и бифуркаций и тем самым повышает точность и надежность прогноза. Методология применяется для системного анализа мировой динамики и построения сценариев развития России. ...
Added: October 22, 2014
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534-553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
Smirnov S. V., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2010 Т. 14 № 2 С. 185-201
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were ...
Added: October 13, 2012
Sheresheva M. Y., Peresvetov S. B., Journal of Entrepreneurship & Innovation 2012 Vol. IV No. 4 P. 1-19
The purpose of the paper is to acquire a better understanding of the impact that inter-firm relationships exert on the survivability of Russian firms in the uncertain conditions of crisis and on the firm’s ability to innovate. Based on survey data gained from Russian CEOs in 2010, the paper discusses developments in the Russian market ...
Added: December 17, 2012
Yakovlev A. A., Russland-Analysen 2013 No. 255 P. 2-7
This paper considers main driving forces of new possible model of economic growth in Russia after global recession of 2008-2009 as well as preconditions for implantation of this model. Paper argues that two social group improved their positions in 2000s can serve as driving forces of this new model – “new business” and “new bureaucracy” ...
Added: October 8, 2013
Smirnov S. V., Balashova E., Posvianskaia L., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
М. : ИМЭМО РАН, 2016
The collection of extended analytical reports presented at the international conference of young scholars “Transformation of World Energy: Market Mechanisms and State Policy” organized by Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAN and Faculty of International Energy Business, Gubkin Russian State Oil and Gas University in April, 2016. Undergraduate and postgraduate students of leading Russian universities ...
Added: August 31, 2016
Loginovа A., Mikheeva I. V., Горбунова М. Л., СПб. : ИД "Троицкий мост", 2021
The monograph is devoted to the resolution of trade and economic disputes in the WTO. Attention is drawn to the peculiarities and effectiveness of Russia's participation as a plaintiff, defendant and the third party in emerging interstate trade conflicts. An attempt is made to show the importance of the WTO's activities in resolving trade and ...
Added: June 11, 2021
Penikas H. I., Andrievskaya I. K., Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
Smirnov S. V., Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
Karabchuk T., Russland-Analysen 2010 No. 200 P. 2-4
The paper gives an overview on unemployemnt in Russia and the concequances of the crisis of 2008. ...
Added: December 9, 2012
Нидерле П., Kurakin A. A., Никулин А. М. et al., Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Социология 2019 Т. 19 № 2 С. 261-276
The ‘food regime’ approach was introduced as a historical method of “incorporated
comparison” (P. McMichael). This comparison of the role of agriculture in the world-system made some
scholars overemphasize an excessively unitary and coherent global food regime. The authors recognize
this approach as a historical-comparative analytical tool to understand global trends, but argue that
the Russian and Brazilian agrarian ...
Added: June 24, 2019
Saritas O., Kuzminov I., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 218-250
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment.
Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the ...
Added: June 23, 2017