Так ли уж плохо, что мы не умеем распознавать черных лебедей?

Aleskerov Fuad T.; Egorova Lyudmila Gennadyevna

Working paper

Так ли уж плохо, что мы не умеем распознавать черных лебедей?

Математические методы анализа решений в экономике, бизнесе и политике. WP7. Высшая школа экономики, 2010. No. 03.

Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in the author concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance. We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one – rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.

Research target: Mathematics Economics and Management (including Public Administration)Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology

Priority areas: economics sociology management mathematics

Language: English

Full text (PDF, 1.71 Mb)

Keywords: economic models

Publication based on the results of: Decision Making Modeling in Social and Economic Systems(2011)

Экономическая активность населения России в 1990-е гг.

Гимпельсон В. Е. Проблемы рынка труда. WP3. Высшая школа экономики, 2002. № 01.

Added: Mar 26, 2013

Экономика и управление: проблемы и перспективы развития. Сборник научных статей по итогам международной научно-практической конференции г.Волгоград 15-16 ноября 2010 г.

Ч. 1. Волгоград: Волгоградское научное издательство, 2010.

Added: Jan 18, 2013

Роль международных стандартов в развитии глобальных цепочек стоимости

Зуев В.Н., Мануйлов И., Островская Е.Я. Управление. 2015. Т. 3. № 1. С. 80-87.

This paper is devoted to the influence of standardization on emergence and development of global value chains (GVC). Nowadays trade in value added is the subject for heated debates. However, the role of standardization (in particular, international standardization) is highly underestimated. The study examines the history of the development of different types of standards, comparing different approaches to modeling the processes of standardization and develops recommendations for the economic policy of Russia on the basis of its present position in the GVC. At the moment, we can say unambiguously that standardization leads to the shift of firms from upstream stages of production to the field of design and marketing, where a greater chance to realize competitive advantages exists (downstream stages). For Russia, it means continuous improvement in the following areas: the development of large and small businesses in sectors that are not related to the energy, encouraging companies to establish supply chains and value chains, customer orientated businesses. In addition to the positive effects of standardization, the article also reviews some negative shocks. They occur when the standards are being introduced to small firms, or when accepted standards are not harmonized in accordance with international standards, or when there are no resources for modernization within the global value chain, or when there are no opportunities to move into new markets where standardization is lower, or when different standards are set to reach controversial objectives. Nevertheless, in all these cases, there are certain conditions which implementation will make standardization the most effective. These include, for example, a balance between the amount of the factor used in the production and the complexity of the technology. This condition is explained here both mathematically and by the example of the Chinese national program for certification of organic products. Thus, the importance of international standardization for the development of global value chains cannot be overstated, despite possible negative effects. That is why Russia should be actively involved in all of these processes in order to stimulate economic growth.

Added: May 8, 2015

Предпосылки экономической теории: критический анализ.

СПб.: Алетейя, 2017.

The results of research presented in the monograph, are divided into three interrelated sections. In the first section called "The problems of methodology" the emphasis is made on the ontological analysis in economic methodology, on relationships between theoretical models and reality. In the second section "General problems of economic systems analysis" the authors deals analize prerequisites of macroeconomic theories and the current crisis of the mainstream economics, as well as new approaches to the analysis of reproduction of fixed capital. Concluding section presents critical analysis of "orthodox economic doctrines" - Marxism and neoclassical canon of XXth century economics in the context of economic evolution.

Added: Nov 9, 2017

Обновляемый образовательный ресурс "Экономическая школа НИУ ВШЭ"

2012.

Added: Feb 22, 2013

Макроэкономическое обоснование антикризисного управления организациями

Березовский Д. С. Вестник Московского государственного университета печати. 2011. № 2.

Added: Mar 3, 2014

Bounded limit cycles of polynomial foliations of ℂP²

Goncharuk N. B., Kudryashov Y. arxiv.org. math. Cornell University, 2015. No. 1504.03313.

In this article we prove in a new way that a generic polynomial vector field in ℂ² possesses countably many homologically independent limit cycles. The new proof needs no estimates on integrals, provides thinner exceptional set for quadratic vector fields, and provides limit cycles that stay in a bounded domain.

Added: Apr 15, 2015

Государственная политика в области ограничения курения: какие меры наиболее эффективны

Засимова Л. С. Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления. 2010. № 4. С. 68-81.

Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.

Added: Oct 2, 2012

Оценка эффективности деятельности компании на основе ее интеллектуального потенциала

Хинина Н. С. Казанская наука. 2010. № 4. С. 103-109.

One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.

Added: Nov 7, 2012

Влияние выбора целей и инструментов политики денежных властей на уязвимость экономик

Трунин П. В., Дробышевский С. М., Евдокимова Т. В. М.: Издательский дом «Дело» РАНХиГС, 2012.

Added: Mar 26, 2013

На океанских волнах. Россия в мировом кризисе

Уринсон Я. М. Вестник Европы. 2014. № 38-39.

Added: Feb 5, 2018

Правовые институты в России 2000-2007 годах: взгляд со стороны бизнеса

Яковлев А. А. Общественные науки и современность. 2008. № 4. С. 21-37.

Added: Sep 22, 2012