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Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy
P. 105–136.
Publication based on the results of:
In book
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Karasev D., Rozov N., Grinin A., Selbin E., Mitchell L., Goldstone J. Springer, 2022.
Korotayev A., Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Political Studies Review 2026 P. 1–22
In recent years, a kind of “Berlin Wall” has emerged between the study of “revolutions” and “maximalist campaigns.” Although scholars in these two traditions analyze closely related phenomena, they use different terminology, bodies of literature, and empirical conventions. We argue that this separation is analytically costly and prevents fruitful dialogue. On one hand, this leads ...
Added: August 8, 2026
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Ilya Medvedev, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2026 P. 1–49
This study investigates which structural factors most strongly predict armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as Asia using country–year data for 1950–2022 and a set of economic, demographic, political, and climatic indicators. It employs an interpretable machine learning framework (CatBoost with SHAP values ...
Added: June 1, 2026
Balashov D., Антиномии 2026 Т. 26 № 1 С. 27–48
The movement of effective altruism, which emerged at the beginning of the 21st century, represents a new form of utilitarian philosophy that has had a significant impact on Anglo-American philosophical thought in the 19th and 20th centuries. A key feature of effective altruism is its emphasis on practicality. The movement positions itself as an entity ...
Added: May 13, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Royce D. P., Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy 2026 Vol. 23 No. 3 P. 41–63
Although studies have already found Freedom House’s* Freedom in the World rankings to be geopolitically biased, the index remains in use by academia (including Russian academia) with surprising frequency. This article provides detailed and quantitative evidence that Freedom House* is essentially part of the US Government and US political establishment, and is thus in principle liable ...
Added: January 5, 2026
Andrey Korotayev, Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Медведев И. А., Ufimtsev A. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2025 Т. 24 № 1 С. 71–105
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary ...
Added: November 13, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Rutkevich A. M., Тетради по консерватизму 2024 № 3 С. 15–72
The subject of the present article is the relationship between fascism and the monarchic conservatism, existing in the period between two World wars in continental European countries. As the case studies are taken the states, which are usually described as “Fascist regimes” of the 20th century: Italy, Germany, Portugal and Spain. Added to them are ...
Added: December 10, 2024
Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Revolutions have always played a significant role in the life of societies, but this role has become especially important since the XVI century. In other words, since the early Modern period, the role of revolutions as a driving force of progress has increased dramatically. However, in the following centuries, their role in the transformation of ...
Added: October 8, 2024
Dmitriev T., Социологическое обозрение 2024 Т. 23 № 2 С. 231–259
Based on the analysis of Machiavelli’s political writings such as “Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livius”, “The Prince” and “The History of Florence”, the article shows that attempts made repeatedly over the past few decades by such scholars as Tony Negri, John McCormick, Agnes Heller, Claude Lefort and Pierre Manent to declare Machiavelli ...
Added: October 8, 2024
Мухаев Р. Т., Zhdanov A., М.: НИЦ Инфра-М, 2023.
The mobility of political changes and the multiplicity of determinants that determine their course make them a rather difficult object to study. Moreover, the process of uncontrolled changes (political revolutions) is unpredictable when a society moves from one type of development and political system to another. This happened in the 90s of the XX century ...
Added: September 17, 2024
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024
Melville A. Y., Политическая наука 2024 № 2 С. 16–36
This article deals with some new theoretical and methodological
challenges for contemporary political science to wait for consideration. These
challenges are ontological and epistemological; on the one hand, they derive from the
objective dynamics the political, economic and social reality and, on the other hand,
from the emerging dilemmas of political science itself. The first type of challenges
comprises the ...
Added: May 31, 2024
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., Critical Sociology 2024 Vol. 50 No. 6 P. 1109–1141
First of all, we would like to sincerely thank our critics for their work, for being able to find the opportunity to read our voluminous books, especially the Handbook of Revolutions (Goldstone et al., 2022b), which indeed came out much larger than we had planned, although unfortunately many topics and problems were left ‘off the ...
Added: May 20, 2024
Maksim Kostin, Korotayev A., Comparative Sociology 2024 Vol. 23 No. 2 P. 240–278
USAID democracy promotion programs might not only influence the democracy levels, but also increase the likelihood of revolutionary uprisings in the recipient states. Democracy promotion can strengthen political opponents of the incumbent regime via support for alternative media, civil society groups and political parties, on one hand, and, on the other, support democratic institutions that ...
Added: May 7, 2024