• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Book chapter
  • Структурно-демографические факторы социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Сахеля: факторы и прогнозные сценарии (предварительные результаты)
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
May 25, 2026
HSE Scientists Train Neural Network to 'Hear' Faults in Electric Motors
Researchers at the AI and Digital Science Institute of the HSE Faculty of Computer Science have developed a new method—the Signature-Guided Data Augmentation (SGDA) framework—that achieves 99% accuracy in motor fault detection and 86% accuracy in fault classification. The application of this approach can reduce industrial equipment repair costs, minimise downtime, and improve production safety. The study results have been published in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence.
May 25, 2026
'The Humanities Serve as a Conscience'
Maria Mizernaia studies Soviet literature and the history of book publishing. In this interview for the HSE Young Scientists project, she discusses plans to publish a novel about besieged Leningrad, AI-provoked reflections on what it means to be human, and how novels can help satisfy our dopamine hunger.
May 25, 2026
Is It Possible to Predict a Citys Life Based on the Shape of Its Neighbourhoods?
Is it possible to predict, based on the configuration of streets and buildings, where a café will open or where traffic congestion will occur? Participants in the Spatial Analysis and Modelling of Urban Processes research and study group use open data and machine learning to identify universal patterns. Alexander Sheludkov and Eduard Somov discuss the purpose of comparing cities, the need for new forms of urban statistics, and how open data is transforming approaches to urban studies.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Структурно-демографические факторы социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Сахеля: факторы и прогнозные сценарии (предварительные результаты)

С. 387–399.
Romanov D., Медведев И. А., Korotayev A.
Language: Russian
Full text
Text on another site
Keywords: demographyсоциально-демографические факторысоциально-политическая дестабилизацияdestabilization factors
Publication based on the results of:
Instruments and Factors of Socio-Political Destabilization in the Middle East and Central Asia (2019)

In book

Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
Вып. 10. , Издательство "Учитель", 2019.
Similar publications
Осенние протесты 2025 года в Республике Мадагаскар: современные тенденции и глобальное значение социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Африки
Chernomorchenko I., Чихарев И. И., Социодинамика 2026 № 3 С. 34–57
The article examines the autumn 2025 protests in Madagascar as an episode of socio-political destabilization combining features of a coupvolution and Generation Z protest mobilization. The Malagasy events represent the first case in Africa where Generation Z protests culminated in regime change, with the military playing a decisive role—aligning this episode with the coupvolutions in ...
Added: April 5, 2026
Население мировой Арктики: динамика численности и центры расселения
Smirnov A., Арктика и Север 2020 № 40 С. 270–290
The article presents an estimate of the Arctic population in 1900–2019 by country and macroregion, obtained using official statistics of eight Arctic States. Analysis of spatial and temporal data revealed the main patterns of the Arctic population formation. Calculations show the world’s Arctic population increased from 1.3 million in 1900 to 6.1 million in 1989, ...
Added: March 19, 2026
Прогнозирование миграционных процессов методами цифровой демографии
Smirnov A., Экономика региона 2022 Т. 18 № 1 С. 133–145
The nature and intensity of migration processes are constantly changing. Demographic statistics are not suitable for obtaining up-to-date information and making timely decisions in the field of demographic and social policy. Thus, digital demography is becoming increasingly important, as this area of population research uses new methods and data sources resulting from the Internet expansion ...
Added: March 18, 2026
«Цифровой двойник» населения Арктики в демографических исследованиях и управлении развитием территорий
Smirnov A., Арктика и Север 2023 № 53 С. 260–272
The article considers “digital twins” of the population as a tool for socio-demographic research and territorial management. The experience of creating digital twins of the population and interactive websites devoted to demographic issues is systematized. A methodology for creating a digital twin of the Arctic population is proposed, based on three methodological principles: consideration of ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Этничность и политическая нестабильность на западе Демократической Республики Конго
Chernomorchenko I., Информационные войны 2025 № 4 (76) С. 20–24
Chronic instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is traditionally examined through the lens of con icts in the eastern part of the country; however, ethnicity also plays a central role in driving instability in the western regions. Based on an analysis of the Bundu dia Kongo movement and interethnic con icts in the ...
Added: December 19, 2025
Демографические вызовы развитию сельских территорий и кадровое обеспечение АПК
Mitrofanov S. V., Yanbykh R., Orlova N. et al., Крестьяноведение 2025 Т. 10 № 3 С. 38–67
The article considers the demographic-institutional challenges of Russian rural areas and their impact on staffing of the agro-industrial complex (AIC). The authors focus on such key trends as depopulation, aging and urbanization, which reduce labor resources in agriculture, on structural changes in the age and gender dynamics of rural population, migration and degradation of social infrastructure (health, education, culture), ...
Added: October 24, 2025
Дискуссия в «Литературной газете» о проблемах советской семьи в конце 1960-х – начале 1970-х гг.
Vohmina V., Вестник гуманитарного образования 2025 № 2 С. 55–65
The article analyses the intelligentsia discourse on the Soviet family in "The Literaturnaya Gazeta" in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The focus is on the key issues discussed, such as the role of men and women in society, changes in family values, problems of child rearing, the topic of divorce and the declining birth ...
Added: September 2, 2025
ИНДЕКС МИГРАЦИОННЫХ НАМЕРЕНИЙ ИНОСТРАННЫХ СТУДЕНТОВ В РОССИИ
Ростовская Т. К., Скоробогатова В. И., Larionov A. et al., Университетское управление: практика и анализ 2025 Т. 29 № 1 С. 45–55
Russia maintains its position as one of the world’s leading destinations for international students, with current enrollment figures reaching 389,000 in 2024 and projected to increase to 410,000 by 2025. Given the recognized quality of Russian higher education, many international graduates represent valuable potential contributors to Russia’s labor market and society. To facilitate their targeted ...
Added: July 2, 2025
Региональная инфляция и возрастная структура населения: взгляд сквозь призму пространственно-временного подхода
Терещенко Д. С., Щербаков В. С., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 4 С. 112–135
The article focuses on studying the specifics of the influence of the age structure of the population on regional inflation in the territory of the Russian Federation. The main research issue is to identify the nature of the influence (proinflationary or disinflationary) of all population groups (younger than working age, working age, older than working ...
Added: April 3, 2025
Обычай инкё («сокрытое бытие») и его социально-политические последствия в периоды Токугава и Мэйдзи
Meshcheryakov A., В кн.: История и культура Японии. Вып. 16.: М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2024. С. 39–53.
During the Tokugawa period, the custom of inkyo 隠居 spread among all major social strata, including the highest political elite. It assumed the voluntary resignation of the "position" of the head of the family, who is of capable age, and the transfer of authority to the heir (usually the eldest son after his marriage). This ...
Added: March 6, 2025
Development of a Visualization Tool for the Occurrence of Life Events on the Demographic Lexis Grid
Mitrofanova E., Ignatov D. I., Tatyana Maximova et al., , in: Recent Trends in Analysis of Images, Social Networks and Texts: 11th International Conference, AIST 2023, Yerevan, Armenia, September 28–30, Revised Selected Papers.: Springer, 2024. P. 301–308.
We present an interactive web-based tool that allows researchers to visualize the occurrence of life events on the demographic Lexis grid. The tool can be used to compare different generations, find the most important patterns for the occurrence of certain chains of events, and predict next the most likely events. The current version of the ...
Added: October 1, 2024
The Maternity Capital programs in Russia and the second birth spacing
Gorskiy D., Applied Econometrics 2024 Vol. 75 P. 117–141
The paper utilises survival analysis to study the role of the Maternity Capital program, introduced in 2007 in Russia to stimulate families to have a second birth (or adopt a second child), in changing the birth spacing between the first and the second child. The empirical study is carried out on the microdata of the ...
Added: April 18, 2024
Оценка потенциальной социально-экономической выгоды широкого внедрения поливитаминных препаратов с целью снижения частоты неблагоприятных исходов беременности в России
Дмитриев М. Э., Popovich L., Зимоха А. Ю. et al., Акушерство и гинекология: Новости. Мнения. Обучения 2022 Т. 10 № 3 С. 96–106
Recent data indicate a high incidence of micronutrient deficiencies in Russia’s population of reproductive age. Vitamin and mineral deficiencies increase risk of unfavorable pregnancy course and outcomes, which, in turn, may affect the demographic situation in the country. At the same time the results of clinical studies and meta-analyses confirm the possibility of beneficial effect of vitamin-mineral complexes ...
Added: April 4, 2024
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Bhattacharjee N., Schumacher A., Austin E. et al., The Lancet 2024 Vol. 403 No. 10440 P. 2057–2099
Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender ...
Added: March 22, 2024
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Schumacher A., Kyu H. H., Aali A. et al., The Lancet 2024 Vol. 403 No. 10440 P. 1989–2056
Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study ...
Added: March 16, 2024
Social Isolation and Demographic Problems of Border Territories: Theoretical Analysis and Application in Migration Studies
Saryglar S., Shakhova E., Borisova O., , in: Advances in Natural, Human-Made, and Coupled Human-Natural Systems ResearchVol. 234: Advances in Natural, Human-Made, and Coupled Human-Natural Systems Research. Lecture Notes in Networks and System. Issue 1.: Springer, 2023. P. 311–327.
The general goal of the paper is connected with the analysis of aging of the population of modern Russia, identification of the disorganizing factors leading to social exclusion and social inequality of the senior age groups and in turn to conflict situations, social tension in society in general. The problem of removal or mitigation of ...
Added: September 4, 2023
К прогнозированию некоторых структурно-демографических рисков социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Восточной и Южной Африки
Зинькина Ю. В., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 363–402.
Added: August 17, 2023
Изменения в рождаемости на фоне пандемии COVID-19: опыт исследования российских регионов
Kazenin K., Mitrofanova E., Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2023 № 2(174) С. 14–30
The paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Russian regions. Our central hypothesis suggests that the pandemic conduced the postponement of childbearing because the socioeconomic uncertainty increased starting with 2020. We used the data from a quantitative survey of women of reproductive ages held in June-July 2022 in three regions of ...
Added: January 24, 2023
Демографические факторы как предикторы революционных ситуаций: опыт количественного анализа
Ustyuzhanin V., Жодзишская П. А., Korotayev A., Социологический журнал 2022 Т. 28 № 4 С. 34–59
Although there are plenty of quantitative cross-national analyses on the influence of population age structure on revolutionary risks, there are currently not enough studies that examine its impact on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions taken separately. Assuming that the dependence of potential political destabilization on the median age will suffer for armed and ...
Added: November 23, 2022
Япония. В погоне за ветром столетий
Meshcheryakov A., М.: ООО "Лингвистика", 2022.
A monograph could be compared to a long novel, this book is more like a collection of short stories about the fundamental characteristics of Japanese history and culture. Why is Japan called "the land of the rising sun"? From what misfortunes did “elegant” Japanese gardens protect? How  the land of this small country was able ...
Added: October 13, 2022
Японская эмиграция: от революции Мэйдзи до Второй мировой войны (практический и эмоциональный контекст)
Meshcheryakov A., Японские исследования 2022 № 1 С. 78–94
During the Tokugawa period, Japan’s population stabilized at 31–32 million. After the Meiji revolution, it began to grow rapidly. Some people were proud and saw in the multiplication of the Japanese a sign that things were going well in the country, but, for the more realistic-minded scholars, the rapid population growth caused not delight, but most serious alarm ...
Added: October 13, 2022
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit