Раздел 5.5. Фондовый рынок в условиях кризиса: накопление институциональных и структурных диспропорций
The review provides a detailed analysis of main trends in Russia's economy in 2008. The paper contains five big sections that highlight single aspects of Russia's economic development: the socio-political context; the monetary and credit and financial spheres; the real sector; social sphere; institutional challenges. The paper employs a huge mass of statistical data that forms the basis of original computation and numerous charts.
This chapter explores the nature of the 2008 crisis and the channels through which it affected the performance of Russian firms. Based on the findings of manufacturing industry survey, the evidence suggests that all manufacturing firms were affected by the crisis and there is no single and dominant transmission channel. Crisis reactions were significantly related to participation in international markets, although participation in trade, external borrowing or FDI can not explain recession by themselves. The reversal of growth was mainly caused by demand shock, and following that, by financial constraints. Thus hypothesis that blames overheating of internal demand in the years prior to the crisis seems to receive statistical backing. Globalised companies, thogh hit by external shocks, were better prepared to pay the cost and balance the consequences of the crisis.
Using data on foreign borrowing, I identify Russian banks that were affected by the sudden stop of external financing caused by the Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Applying the difference-in-difference method, I compare these «affected» banks to «unaffected» ones and find that the Russian Central Bank’s (CBR) anti-crisis financial assistance primarily went to the former group. Tracing the impact of the CBR’s liquidity infusions on banks’ portfolio allocation decisions, I find that banks used CBR funds not only to pay out foreign debt, but also to accumulate cash deposits in non-resident banks. I also find that affected banks increased their holdings of market securities significantly more than unaffected ones, which suggests that the CBR’s bailout policies impacted their risk-taking strategies. While there was no significant difference in corporate lending growth between the two groups after the sudden stop, lending to borrowers with weaker banking relationships (individuals and entrepreneurs) decreased more among affected banks.
The economic crisis of 2008, starting from US banking crisis, affected the economic and political developments in varied ways around the world. This edited volume examines the imact of the crisis on Eastern Europe and Russia, and the resulting policy responces. Taken as a whole, the economies of the former state social countries - frequently still referred to as transition economies - were hit hard by the crisis, suffering falls in GDP in 2009 that were deeper than the average around the world. However, there was considerable variety in the effects on individual countries, whilst some continuing to grow , others suffered quite exceptional falls in output. Policy responces were also quite diverse and do not obviously fit with the nature and severity of economic factors. The more general impacts on political life were also varied. In many cases very much the same governments continued in power, while in othere there were significant changes and signs of a growing instability in party and political structures. The articles in this book explore these differencies between countries and set them in a wider international context.
The article analyzes the competitiveness of the Russian economy in comparison with the leading economies of the world in the context of Russia's WTO accession on aspects such as the level of interest rates and the availability of financial resources, the dynamics of energy prices, condition of fixed assets and investment activity, investment climate. We outline the basic negative tendencies, hindering the development of the economy and reducing its attractiveness to investors. Based on these results it can be argued that WTO accession will not lead to significant improvement of the investment climate and economic efficiency, and without the implementation of measures to address the problems considered, it can be a catalyst for the negative trends in Russian economy.
The paper investigates the optimization methods used by an investor working on the Russian stork market. The efficient sets, corresponding for the two different states of the market (with «moderate» and «rapid» growth rates), are build. The paper denies the necessity of the «deep» diversification of the portfolio on the Russian stork market. Some recommendations concerning the investment portfolio management are formulated.
This paper presents a quarterly index of competitiveness of the construction industry allowing to monitor status of industry and trend of development as well as presents the first results. The index consists of three components: remote rating of construction companies, the survey of professional community, market conditions. Detailing of index includes country, Federal districts and regions. The results would be useful for regional governments and other stakeholders of the construction market