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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 18
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Article
Sukhoroslov O., Rubtsov A., Volkov S. Computer Research and Modeling. 2015. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 593-599.
Added: Sep 9, 2016
Article
Madera A. G., Kandalov P. I. Computer Research and Modeling. 2016. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 501-520.

The currently performed mathematical and computer modeling of thermal processes in technical systems is based on an assumption that all the parameters determining thermal processes are fully and unambiguously known and identified (i.e., determined). Meanwhile, experience has shown that parameters determining the thermal processes are of undefined interval-stochastic character, which in turn is responsible for the intervalstochastic nature of thermal processes in the electronic system. This means that the actual temperature values of each element in an technical system will be randomly distributed within their variation intervals. Therefore, the determinative approach to modeling of thermal processes that yields specific values of element temperatures does not allow one to adequately calculate temperature distribution in electronic systems. The interval-stochastic nature of the parameters determining the thermal processes depends on three groups of factors: (a) statistical technological variation of parameters of the elements when manufacturing and assembling the system; (b) the random nature of the factors caused by functioning of an technical system (fluctuations in current and voltage; power, temperatures, and flow rates of the cooling fluid and the medium inside the system); and (c) the randomness of ambient parameters (temperature, pressure, and flow rate). The interval-stochastic indeterminacy of the determinative factors in technical systems is irremediable; neglecting it causes errors when designing electronic systems. A method that allows modeling of unsteady interval-stochastic thermal processes in technical systems (including those upon interval indeterminacy of the determinative parameters) is developed in this paper. The method is based on obtaining and further solving equations for the unsteady statistical measures (mathematical expectations, variances and covariances) of the temperature distribution in an technical system at given variation intervals and the statistical measures of the determinative parameters. Application of the elaborated method to modeling of the interval-stochastic thermal process in a particular electronic system is considered.

Added: Oct 29, 2018
Article
Volkov S., Sukhoroslov O. Computer Research and Modeling. 2015. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 601-606.
Added: Sep 9, 2016
Article
Дмитриев А. В., Марков Н. В. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2014. Т. 6. № 1. С. 159-166.
Added: Nov 19, 2014
Article
Дмитриев А. В., Марков Н. В. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2014. Т. 6. № 1. С. 159-166.

This scientific work is dedicated to applying of two-layer interval weighted graphs in non-stationary time series forecasting and evaluation of market risks. The first layer of the graph, formed with the primary system training, displays potential system fluctuations at the time of system training. Interval vertexes of the second layer of the graph (the superstructure of the first layer) which display the degree of time series modeling error are connected with the first layer by edges. The proposed model has been approved by the 90-day forecast of steel billets. The average forecast error amounts 2,6% (it’s less than the average forecast error of the autoregression models).

Added: Feb 18, 2014
Article
Максимова О. В., Аронов И. З., Зажигалкин А. В. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2015. Т. 7. № 4. С. 941-950.
In the article a mathematical model to ensure consensus on the work of technical standardization committees (TC), based on a consensus model, proposed DeGrootom. The basic problems of achieving consensus in the development of consensus standards in the conditions of the proposed model. The results of statistical modeling, characterizing the dependence of time to reach consensus on the number of members of the TC and authoritarianism. It has been shown that increasing the number of experts TK and authoritarianism negative impact on the time to reach a consensus and increase fragmentation of the group.
Added: Sep 5, 2015
Article
Кондратьев М. А. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2013. Т. 5. № 5. С. 863-882.

The number of papers addressing the forecasting of the infectious disease morbidity is rapidly growing due to accumulation of available statistical data. This article surveys the major approaches for the short-term and the long-term morbidity forecasting. Their limitations and the practical application possibilities are pointed out. The paper presents the conventional time series analysis methods — regression and autoregressive models; machine learning-based approaches — Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks; case-based reasoning; filtration-based techniques. The most known mathematical models of infectious diseases are mentioned: classical equation-based models (deterministic and stochastic), modern simulation models (network and agent-based).

Added: Jan 13, 2014
Article
Мадера А. Г. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2018. Т. 10. № 4. С. 483-494.

The article is devoted to the effect of thermal feedback, which occurs during the operation of integrated circuits and electronic systems with their use. Thermal feedback is due to the fact that the power consumed by the functioning of the microchip heats it and, due to the significant dependence of its electrical parameters on temperature, interactive interaction arises between its electrical and thermal processes. The effect of thermal feedback leads to a change in both electrical parameters and temperature levels in microcircuits. Positive thermal feedback is an undesirable phenomenon, because it causes the output of the electrical parameters of the microcircuits beyond the permissible values, the reduction in reliability and, in some cases, burn out. Negative thermal feedback is manifested in stabilizing the electrical and thermal regimes at lower temperature levels. Therefore, when designing microcircuits and electronic systems with their application, it is necessary to achieve the implementation of negative feedback. In this paper, we propose a method for modeling of thermal modes in electronic systems, taking into account the effect of thermal feedback. The method is based on introducing into the thermal model of the electronic system new model circuit elements that are nonlinearly dependent on temperature, the number of which is equal to the number of microcircuits in the electronic system. This approach makes it possible to apply matrix-topological equations of thermal processes to the thermal model with new circuit elements introduced into it and incorporate them into existing thermal design software packages. An example of modeling a thermal process in a real electronic system is presented, taking into account the effect of thermal feedback on the example of a microcircuit installed on a printed circuit board. It is shown that in order to adequately model the electrical and thermal processes of microcircuits and electronic systems, it is necessary to take into account the effects of thermal feedback in order to avoid design errors and create competitive electronic systems.

Added: Nov 6, 2019
Article
Малков С. Ю. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2017. Т. 9. № 3. С. 419-432.

In the article is carried out the analysis of historical process with the use of methods of synergetics (science about the nonlinear developing systems in nature and the society), developed in the works of D. S. Chernavskii in connection with to economic and social systems. It is shown that social self-organizing depending on conditions leads to the formation of both the societies with the strong internal competition (Y-structures) and cooperative type societies (X-structures). Y-structures are characteristic for the countries of the West, X-structure are characteristic for the countries of the East. It is shown that in XIX and in XX centuries occurred accelerated shaping and strengthening of Y-structures. However, at present world system entered into the period of serious structural changes in the economic, political, ideological spheres: the domination of Y-structures concludes. Are examined the possible ways of further development of the world system, connected with change in the regimes of self-organizing and limitation of internal competition. This passage will be prolonged and complex. Under these conditions it will objectively grow the value of the civilizational experience of Russia, on basis of which was formed combined type social system. It is shown that ultimately inevitable the passage from the present domination of Y-structures to the absolutely new global system, whose stability will be based on the new ideology, the new spirituality (i.e., new “conditional information” according D. S. Chernavskii), which makes a turn from the principles of competition to the principles of collaboration.

Added: Oct 26, 2018
Article
Прядеин Р. Б., Степанцов М. Е. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2014. Т. 6. № 3. С. 455-460.

This paper is dedicated to discussing methods of statistical modeling the outcomes of sport events and, particularly, matches with continuous time. We propose a simulation-based approach to predicting the outcome of a match, somehow medium between pure statistical methods and agent simulation of individual players. An example of retrospective prediction is given.

Added: Dec 17, 2014
Article
Степанцов М. Е. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2013. Т. 5. № 3. С. 395-401.
Added: Nov 28, 2013
Article
Силаева В. А., Силаева М. В., Силаев А. М. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2018. Т. 10. № 6. С. 903-918.

The paper considers the problem of estimating the parameters of time series described by regression models with Markov switching of two regimes at random instants of time with independent Gaussian noise. For the solution, we propose a variant of the EM algorithm based on the iterative procedure, during which an estimation of the regression parameters is performed for a given sequence of regime switching and an evaluation of the switching sequence for the given parameters of the regression models. In contrast to the well-known methods of estimating regression parameters in the models with Markov switching, which are based on the calculation of a posteriori probabilities of discrete states of the switching sequence, in the paper the estimates are calculated of the switching sequence, which are optimal by the criterion of the maximum of a posteriori probability. As a result, the proposed algorithm turns out to be simpler and requires less calculations. Computer modeling allows to reveal the factors influencing accuracy of estimation. Such factors include the number of observations, the number of unknown regression parameters, the degree of their difference in different modes of operation, and the signal-to-noise ratio which is associated with the coefficient of determination in regression models. The proposed algorithm is applied to the problem of estimating parameters in regression models for the rate of daily return of the RTS index, depending on the returns of the S&P 500 index and Gazprom shares for the period from 2013 to 2018. Comparison of the estimates of the parameters found using the proposed algorithm is carried out with the estimates that are formed using the EViews econometric package and with estimates of the ordinary least squares method without taking into account regimes switching. The account of regimes switching allows to receive more exact representation about structure of a statistical dependence of investigated variables. In switching models, the increase in the signal-to-noise ratio leads to the fact that the differences in the estimates produced by the proposed algorithm and using the EViews program are reduced.

Added: Feb 25, 2018
Article
Воронцов К. В., Потапенко А. А. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2012. Т. 4. № 4. С. 693-706.

We propose a generalized probabilistic topic model of text corpora which can incorporate heuristics of Bayesian regularization, sampling, frequent parameters update, and robustness in any combinations. Well- known models PLSA, LDA, CVB0, SWB, and many others can be considered as special cases of the proposed broad family of models. We propose the robust PLSA model and show that it is more sparse and performs better that regularized models like LDA.

Added: Feb 19, 2015
Article
Елаева М. С., Блантер Е. М., Шнирман М. Г. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2020. Т. 12. № 2.
Added: Dec 28, 2019
Article
А. С. Акопов, Бекларян Л. А., А. Л. Бекларян и др. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2014. Т. 6. № 4. С. 621-631.

This article presents an integrated dynamic model of eco-economic system of the Republic of Armenia (RA). This model is constructed using system dynamics methods, which allow to consider the major feedback related to key characteristics of eco-economic system. Such model is a two-objective optimization problem where as target functions the level of air pollution and gross profit of national economy are considered. The air pollution is minimized due to modernization of stationary and mobile sources of pollution at simultaneous maximization of gross profit of national economy. At the same time considered eco-economic system is characterized by the presence of internal constraints that must be accounted at acceptance of strategic decisions. As a result, we proposed a systematic approach that allows forming sustainable solutions for the development of the production sector of RA while minimizing the impact on the environment. With the proposed approach, in particular, we can form a plan for optimal enterprise modernization and predict long-term dynamics of harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

Added: Sep 17, 2014
Article
Максимова О. В., Григорьев В. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2017. Т. 9. № 6. С. 905-918.

Nowadays the random search became a widespread and effective tool for solving different complex optimization and adaptation problems. In this work, the problem of an average duration of a random search for one object by another is regarded, depending on various factors on a square field. The problem solution was carried out by holding total experiment with 4 factors and orthogonal plan with 54 lines. Within each line, the initial conditions and the cellular automaton transition rules were simulated and the duration of the search for one object by another was measured. As a result, the regression model of average duration of a random search for an object depending on the four factors considered, specifying the initial positions of two objects, the conditions of their movement and detection is constructed. The most significant factors among the factors considered in the work that determine the average search time are determined. An interpretation is carried out in the problem of random search for an object from the constructed model.The important result of the work is that the qualitative and quantitative influence of initial positions of objects, the size of the lattice and the transition rules on the average duration of search is revealed by means of model obtained. It is shown that the initial neighborhood of objects on the lattice does not guarantee a quick search, if each of them moves. In addition, it is quantitatively estimated how many times the average time of searching for an object can increase or decrease with increasing the speed of the searching object by 1 unit, and also with increasing the field size by 1 unit, with different initial positions of the two objects. The exponential nature of the growth in the number of steps for searching for an object with an increase in the lattice size for other fixed factors is revealed. The conditions for the greatest increase in the average search duration are found: the maximum distance of objects in combination with the immobility of one of them when the field size is changed by 1 unit. (that is, for example, with 4x4 at 5x5) can increase the average search duration in e^1,69≈5,42. The task presented in the work may be relevant from the point of view of application both in the landmark for ensuring the security of the state, and, for example, in the theory of mass service.

Added: Nov 16, 2017
Article
Казарян М., Якушкина Т. С., Саакян Д. Б. Компьютерные исследования и моделирование. 2015. Т. 7. № 6. С. 1269-1278.

Crow Kimura model is one an of the famous models of population genetics. We consider the Crow-Kimura model of evolutionary dynamics on the two dimensional fitness landscape with a single peak. We deduce exact solution for the dynamics.

 

Added: Mar 18, 2015