Связи субъективной неопределенности и эффективности решения комплексной проблемы (на материале деятельности управления виртуальной фабрикой)
The process of complex problem solving while exploring and managing a virtual factory simulated by a computer dynamic scenario is considered. The relations between: (a) estimates of subjective uncertainty (beliefs about features of the system explored and managed, methods of the problem solving, expectations of effects of one’s actions), and (b) performance in complex problem solving (measured as increase/decrease of amount of virtual money) are identified. It is shown that subjective uncertainty has a complex structure and affects complex problem solving in different ways. It can be a powerful factor of positive motivation (via interest in the task) or a factor of negative motivation and desire to escape from the complex problem solving situation. There were two different mechanisms of uncertainty reduction in different types of the problem solvers. The solvers with exploratory behavior demonstrate step-by-step increase of optimistic certainty and confidence based on more and more successful orientation in the system and methods of work with it. The solvers with chaotic or rigid behavior demonstrate increase of pessimistic certainty caused by repeating failures, growing confidence in their inability to cope with the task, and desire to get out of the complex problem situation. A regression model of relations between subjective uncertainty and efficiency of complex problem solving is proposed.
Implementation of IT and program projects seems to be very complicated and taught process, associated with many uncertainties and risks. Sure, this does not mean the rejection of such projects, supposed the more responsibility for the decision making process of new information technologies implementation. To manage various problems which face project managers, it makes sense to use special risk management software. The functionality of modern risk management systems allows identifying risk occurrence, conducting scenario modeling, take the more appropriate managing decisions based on scenario analysis and mathematical calculations. All these functionality will support project manager to optimize his business activities in accordance to risk management practices and ensure better coordination and balance inside the project team. Currently there available a wide range of project management software, but it is reasonable to conduct some analysis in terms of applicability to specific IT projects. The author will review the most appropriate software solutions for the risk management in IT area, conduct competitive analysis and provide some recommendations on software selection.
The distractive effects on attentional task performance in different paradigms are analyzed in this paper. I demonstrate how distractors may negatively affect (interference effect), positively (redundancy effect) or neutrally (null effect). Distractor effects described in literature are classified in accordance with their hypothetical source. The general rule of the theory is also introduced. It contains the formal prediction of the particular distractor effect, based on entropy and redundancy measures from the mathematical theory of communication (Shannon, 1948). Single- vs dual-process frameworks are considered for hypothetical mechanisms which underpin the distractor effects. Distractor profiles (DPs) are also introduced for the formalization and simple visualization of experimental data concerning the distractor effects. Typical shapes of DPs and their interpretations are discussed with examples from three frequently cited experiments. Finally, the paper introduces hierarchical hypothesis that states the level-fashion modulating interrelations between distractor effects of different classes.
This article describes the expierence of studying factors influencing the social well-being of educational migrants as mesured by means of a psychological well-being scale (A. Perrudet-Badoux, G.A. Mendelsohn, J.Chiche, 1988) previously adapted for Russian by M.V. Sokolova. A statistical analysis of the scale's reliability is performed. Trends in dynamics of subjective well-being are indentified on the basis the correlations analysis between the condbtbions of adaptation and its success rate, and potential mechanisms for developing subjective well-being among student migrants living in student hostels are described. Particular attention is paid to commuting as a factor of adaptation.