Внешнеэкономические шоки и инфляция в условиях финансовой репрессии
Financial repression refers to the distorting effect of certain government policies on the operation of the financial sector. Several empirical studies of financial repression point out that financial repression retards economic growth by decreasing investment activity in the economy, but the impact of financial repression on inflationary processes has not been adequately studied. This paper examines how inflation and other macroeconomic indicators would respond to an oil price shock when financial repression is or is not in place. Financial repression affects household consumption, and that increases the inflationary response to external shocks. The article constructs a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small exporting economy operating under financial repression. The financial repression takes the form of a government cap on interest rates for a certain proportion of loans available to households. The model is calibrated to resemble the economy of Kazakhstan, where the policy rate for lending applies to more than 20% of the credit market. However, the calibration and structure of the model are broadly typical of exporting economies, and the conclusions drawn from the model are therefore qualitatively applicable to exporting economies in general. The model demonstrates that financial repression increases the impact of external shocks not only on inflation, but also on output, employment, and the effective interest rate. When the effectiveness of a central bank’s ability to maintain inflation targets with minimal volatility is judged according to the Taylor Rule, these results imply that financial repression makes it more difficult for central banks to reach that goal.