Роль лесов в реализации стратегии низкоуглеродного развития России

Доклады Академии Наук. Науки о Земле. 2022. Т. 507. № 1. С. 153–158.

А. В. Птичников, Е. А. Шварц, Попова Г. А., А. С. Байбар

The article analyzes the potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by
2060. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (LCDS) on decarbonization by increasing the net absorption by forests from forest climate projects
is insufficiently substantiated. The LCDS proposes an overly optimistic option to increase the net absorption
of greenhouse gases by forests up to 1200 million tons of CO2-eq. per year, while according to our
calculations, the practical ceiling is approximately 1000 million tons of CO2-eq. per year by 2050 – with a
constant volume of forest management. The reason for the discrepancy is the incomplete accounting of forest
fire emissions in the forest greenhouse gas balance and the overestimation of the absorption potential in climate
projects. Achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation may require more decarbonization efforts
based on technology upgrades than planned in the LCDS. The analysis carried out shows that the stake
on forest-climatic projects to achieve carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation within the framework of
the LCDS probably requires significant adjustment. The revealed differences in the predicted values of the
decarbonization parameters, the uncertainty in the interpretation of forest climate projects and their role in
the LCDS, make it necessary to continue the work to find the optimal scenario for the decarbonization of the
Russian Federation.

Keywords: decarbonization, декарбонизация, climate projects, климатические проекты, Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia (LCDS), increased carbon sequestration by forests, adaptation of ecosystems to climate change, Стратегия низкоуглеродного развития России (СНУР), повышение поглощения лесами, адаптация экосистем к изменениям климата