Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis
It is not surprising that Mubarak’s administration “overlooked” the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking serious measures to mitigate their effect on the poorest layers of the population. Unemployment level (in per cent) was less than in many developed countries of the world and, moreover, was declining, and so were population growth rates. What would be the grounds to expect a full-scale social explosion? Of course, the administration had a sort of reliable information on the presence of certain groups of dissident “bloggers”, but how could one expect that they would be able to inspire to go to the Tahrir any great masses of people? It was even more difficult to figure out that Mubarak’s regime would be painfully struck by its own modernization successes of the 1980s, which led to the sharp decline of crude death rate and especially of infant and child mortality in 1975–1990. Without these successes many young Egyptians vehemently demanding Mubarak’s resignation (or even death) would have been destined to die in early childhood and simply would not have survived to come out to the Tahrir Square.
Socio-economic development in the Arab world is an important element of global pattern changes in the early 21st century. They show a complex interaction of processes in the masses of the new young "Internet generations" and the elites, and somewhat forgotten gastarbiters. Matrix of kingdoms and republics, oil and non-oil countries make situation more complex for the region than for any separate country. From our viewpoint the political spring in the Arab world requires, first of all, the analysis of the Arab society, its nature and characteristics that distinguish it from societies of the Christian tradition of Europe and the Americas. And is it revolt of the middle class in one oil country or a rebellion of tribes? The new middle class, the information revolution and the dispossessed masses, including migrant workers in the background of the huge concentration of wealth of the ruling regimes represent the socio-economic reality of the Middle East that will be present in international politics in the next decade. And finally - to what extent the lesson of Lybia can be applicable to other oil countries? What may be lessons for other elites?
The author shows that demographic transition is an organic part of civilization developments. Such phenomen as death rate and birth rate, changes in character of migration are connected with stages of development of a civilization.
Un nou factor a fost adus constant în prim-plan în cadrul analizei şi proiectării politicii de învăţământ superior. Acest factor se referă la perspectivele demografice, deoarece acestea includ probleme legate de demografia în sine, cât şi la alte subiecte cu o referinţă mai largă, cum ar fi fluxurile de migraţie şi ciclurile de viaţă ale persoanelor, în această perioadă de modernitate. Sunt instituţiile de învăţământ superior din Europa pregătite în mod adecvat pentru a reacţiona la schimbările demografice fără precedent? Cum pot ele răspunde cel mai bine la astfel de provocări, în contextul evoluţiilor regionale, cum ar fi Procesul de la Bologna? Care sunt bunele practici de urmat? Publicat în cadrul seriei “Învăţământ Superior pentru o societate a cunoaşterii” a UNESCO-CEPES, acest volum oferă câteva reflecţii şi analize, şi ridică o serie de preocupări legate de astfel de anchete de actualitate. Volumul beneficiază de contribuţiile unei echipe multidisciplinare internaţionale de experţi şi prezintă studii de caz naţionale din ţări ca Estonia, Germania, Polonia, România, Suedia, Federaţia Rusă, Turcia şi Marea Britanie, precum şi studii tematice referitoare la migraţie şi la ciclurile de viaţă. Cea mai mare parte a datelor prezentate în lucrare sunt foarte recente, şi analiza ar putea avea impact asupra politicii de învăţământ superior. Acest volum se adresează tuturor celor interesaţi şi preocupaţi despre schimbările demografice actuale din Europa şi despre impactul acestora asupra învăţământului superior.
The life course is becoming more flexible and more amenable to personal adjustment for contemporary youth. The process and timing of entering adulthood is expanding due to longer education and the search for oneself. Young people in contemporary Russia do not rush to acquire social statuses that were once so desirable in Soviet times, i.e. that of a parent, employee, and family person. Today, prestige is based on acquiring a good education and career, processes on which they are betting (Blum et al., 2009: 158–159).
Young people also have very specific demands for quality: quality of life, quality of intimate relations, and quality of parenting. All of this has motivated young people to ceaselessly look for an appropriate job, home, partner, and to invest in their children, preferring quality to quantity.
Efficient family-planning tools have separated marital, reproductive, and sexual behavior, transforming these into three different spheres of self-fulfillment. All of these stages, now stretched out through time, reflect individual needs and perspectives. The increasing dispersal of timing of marital relations and childbearing reveals that young people are postponing important demographic events further and further.
Russians have only recently acquired the opportunity to efficiently manage the most prolific period of their lives — youth. They attempt to start planning their lives as early as possible and to construct it sequentially in a personally tailored way.
The aging of Russian population leads to inefficiency of Pay-As-You-Go system, where the benefits come solely from government taxation of current workers' wages, and seems to be one of the problems of Russian Pension System. This is the overview of Russian demographic settings compared to other countries from US CIA ranking. Long-run instruments of influencing demography in Russia are stated below.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.