Вклад курения в смертность в России в 2019 году

Демографическое обозрение. 2021. Т. 8. № 1. С. 81–105.

Халтурина Д. А., Zamyatnina E., Зубкова Т. С.

Tobacco use is a known risk factor for premature mortality. This paper presents the estimates of smoking-related mortality in Russia in 2019 for 27 causes of death for smokers and ex-smokers by gender and five-year age groups.

Smoking prevalence in Russia by sex and age and share of former smokers who quitted 10 or less years ago was obtained from RLMS HSE. The causes of death associated with current and past smoking, as well as the relative risk (RR) values were obtained from systematic reviews and cohort studies. The estimates of the contribution of current and past smoking for each cause of death by sex and five-year age groups, was made using the formula of the population attributable fraction (PAF) in its multilevel form. Rosstat data on the number of deaths by causes of death, gender and five-year age groups in Russia in 2019 was obtained from the database of the Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. 

The structure and differences in smoking-related mortality by cause of death and age, gender was calculated.

According to our calculations, more than 266 thousand people died due to smoking in Russia in 2019, including 226 thousand men and 40 thousand women. 58% of these deaths were from cardiovascular diseases. These calculations make it possible to estimate the structure of smoking-related mortality by causes of death, gender and age in modern Russia, and to set a benchmark for tobacco-control policy development. 

Keywords: смертность, курение, mortality, smoking, демографический анализ, причины смерти, causes of death, demographic analysis