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Article

Россия и мир: 2019. Экономика и внешняя политика. Ежегодный прогноз

Адно Ю., Афонцев С., Богачевская О., Володин А., Вода К., Гронский А., Канаев Е. А., Давыдов О., Журавлева В., Загорский А., Звягельская И., Игнатьев С., Кобринская И., Кожанов Н., Кудинова О., Кузьмина Е., Кузнецов А., Леонтьева Е., Ломанов А., Лукашин Ю., Луконин С., Малышева Д., Мачавариани Г., Меджидова Д., Миркин Я., Михеев В., Никитина Е., Попов В., Работяжев Н., Свистунова И., Соловьев Э., Сурков Н., Тоганова Н., Уткин С., Федоровский А., Фрумкин Б., Худякова Л., Швыдко В., Широков С., Карасова Т., Дынкин А., Барановский В.

 

2019 will be the latest in a series of difficult years for Russia, owing to the synergyof three long-term negative factors. The first is the dismantling of the global order,the departure of world politics from the whole complex of rules, principles, agree-ments, institutions and even values that were developed since the end of the Sec-ond World War. The second is the concern or resistance of a significant number ofthe world’s leading players to Russia’s persistent moves to restore its status as a worldpower in the last decade (Kobrinskaya, 2018). The third factor is that in the forma-tion of Russia’s foreign policy, domestic political and socio-economic factors, whichdirectly and indirectly determine the country’s position in world politics, includinghow it is perceived abroad, are increasingly asserting themselves.Under the influence of these factors, three trends have emerged that will largely de-termine Russia’s position in the world community: the instability of its relations withthe West; the strengthening of its ties with China; and the deepening crisis and con-flictual state of the entire complex of international relations.