Смертность от дорожно-транспортных происшествий в России: подходы к оценке, тенденции и перспективы
In 2016, the crude death rate from road traffic accidents in Russia decreased, according to police data, to a level not observed since 1971, after which it continued to decline. The positive trends apparently served as the basis for the optimistic goals laid down in the road safety strategy for 2018-2024.
Based on police data, state statistics on mortality and international databases on mortality and road safety, the authors try to answer these questions: Are the goals set achievable within the specified timeframe, and how consistent are they with European trends in road traffic mortality, as well as with Russia’s current differentiation of road traffic mortality by space, age and category of road users?
The study showed that the deadlines for achieving targets in the road safety strategy are very tight. Today, only large and medium-sized cities have the potential to implement a new road safety strategy in which the crude death rate should not exceed 1.5-2 deaths per 100 thousand people by 2024, whereas in small cities and rural settlements - 2.5-3 deaths per 100 thousand people. For many years, the main risk groups have been drivers and passengers aged 15-44 and pedestrians over 60, who do not appear in the road safety strategy as priority categories.
In addition, the article shows that in order to eliminate the existing discrepancies between the numbers of deaths published by the two official accounting systems (the police and Rosstat), the very first step might be for Rosstat to stop calculating the road traffic death toll based on the current brief list of causes of death and transition to one of the two international options for aggregating three-digit codes of causes of death used by the WHO.
The article regards the question of migrants’ impact on the fertility and nuptiality rates in Russia. The author evaluates the contribution of foreign citizens in the total number of registered births and marriages, and then calculates the adjusted total fertility rates in ten Russian regions based on 2011 vital statistics data. On average the significant share of events registered in these regions occurred in couples where at least one of spouses was non-Russian citizen. At the same time, the contribution of foreigners in the total fertility rate was positive in only half of the regions.
The changes of the respondents image of the world after experiencing an accident on the basis of a three-layer model of the image of the world are described. To explore the nuclear layer of model of the image changes the method of ranking values M. Rokeach was used, for the semantic layer - specialized semantic differential "Lifestyle", for perceptual layer - the questionnaire with open questions.
The paper examines correlation in planning and organizing logistics of supplying goods and the issue of safety at urban roads; a model to determine the time of goods delivery is proposed on the basis of logistic concept “just-in-time” that takes into account the requirements of road safety on the one hand, and the customer-oriented approach of delivery, applied technologies and management solutions, on the other. The model is based on an integrated approach to the management of logistics processes; it can serve as a basis for decision making among departments in transport enterprises, logistics departments at industrial and trade enterprises, and corporate consumers. The paper also proposes to add the second level parameters to the system of logistics key performance indicators (KPI); these parameters would allow evaluating the target performance in goods transportation, as well as actual performance of logistics operations, including transportation in terms of road safety.
The collective monograph deals with the fundamentals and principles of venture financing, the history of its emergence, distinctive features from other types of investment. The book proves the relevance of the developing logistics infrastructure and the formating regional transport and logistics system based on the cluster approach in the Omsk region. The monograph deals with the problem of road safety from the institutional approach. Collective monograph can be recommended to senior managers, business professionals, university professors, graduate students, students of senior courses in economic specialties.
The Proceedings of reports presented at the 12th International Conference on Road Organization and Safety in Big Cities (St. Petersburg, 28-30 September 2016) covers a wide range of theoretical and practical issues related to road deaths prevention (up to “zero” level) – conceptual, legal, organizational, technological, informational, etc. Following the goal it builds up the knowledge base on the space (complete set) of factors affecting the level of road safety, as well as studies the preventive measures for potential causes of road crash fatalities. The research area includes all levels of the state system hierarchy related to road safety: from the first (the road) level, revealing the final causes of road crashes such as speeding, driving in the opposite direction, etc., to the upper government management levels that can bear the root causes of road crash fatalities and casualties. Subjects of research include general and regional road safety systems, technologies (techniques, methods, mechanisms) for their efficient organization and management, as well as the organization of various subsystems, functionally connected by the system-wide goal. The articles in these Proceedings focus on various subjects, such as the quality of legislative and regulatory issues ensuring system wide activities on road deaths prevention and their rigorous practical implementation; issues of development of transport infrastructure, including bicycles; issues of intellectualization of systems and processes, formalization (including mathematical) of modeling and design tasks of various objects in the system, their effectiveness assessment and sustaining the latter in the operational mode; issues of justification and practical application of the mechanisms of formation of the main functional properties of the systems that make up the quality and create possibilities for on-line monitoring of the functioning processes and prediction of their condition; issues of GIS modeling of road networks, modeling of transport accidents, prevention of drinking and driving, etc. The Conference holders believe that these materials will help find solutions and promote a transfer of the current road safety practices in Russia to a rigorous system approach, to methods of continuous (in CALS-technologies terms) modeling (improvement) of the road crash deaths prevention systems – the only generally recognized scientific tool for efficient complex systems study, to the development of a sustainable knowledge base and targeted experts systems – a tool to manage competence, responsibility and loyal motivation of personnel, and ultimately - to saving lives on the roads.
The paper reveals main problems of mortality statistics, including recorded causes of death. Miscoding of homicides, self-harm, tuberculosis, cardiovascular disease distorts the actual mortality statistics as to causes of death. There are a number of problems with completion of death certificates, measuring infant mortality, and estimating life expectancy. The paper provides recommendations for improving the system of forensic examination and enhancing coordination between statistical bodies, health bodies, and police. Other important conditions for improving the quality of mortality statistics are increased demographic literacy and a growing standard of living of the population.
The paper regards an association between conception and official marriage registration in Russian women’s life course. Authors use 2010 vital statistics database on births for a set of regions to analyze marriage registration rates at different months of pregnancy or before it. The study reveals differences in the marital behavior in a state of pregnancy within age groups and also within regions. A registration of out-of-wedlock births basing on joint parent’s application as well as association between this type of conduct and parent’s age gain special attention within this paper. Furthermore, authors examine dynamics of women’s family status during five years after the birth of the first child using 2010 Census data. Results of the study reveal that in Russia high popularity of legitimated births, i.e. marriages set after confirmed pregnancies, persists until now. Age structure of spouses in this type of families and its higher prevalence among first marriages prove this type of wedlock to be a marker of traditionalist demographic behavior. The same hypothesis is supported by the observed high break-up rate amidst recently married couples with young children.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.