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  • Тенденции рождаемости в России за последние четыре десятилетия: анализ с учетом вероятности рождения очередного ребенка в условных и реальных поколениях

Article

Тенденции рождаемости в России за последние четыре десятилетия: анализ с учетом вероятности рождения очередного ребенка в условных и реальных поколениях

Население (Naselenie Review), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria. 2019. Т. 37. № 1. С. 209-243.

The article presents the results of an analysis of fertility trends in Russia based on the
most powerful statistical and demographic tool known to the international community as period
and cohort age- and parity-specific fertility tables, constructed for calendar years in retrospective
of four decades (1979-2017), and for generations of women born from 1955 to 1990. The results
are intended to strengthen an objective, comprehensive approach to interpreting historical and
recent fertility trends in in Russia, as well as to a balanced assessment of the foreseeable prospects
for changes in period and cohort total fertility. The author critically assesses the demographic
results of the pronatalist policy in Russia over the past decade and calls into question the overly
optimistic prospects for further increase in level of fertility, widespread in the Russian political
elite.