Тенденции рождаемости в России за последние четыре десятилетия: анализ с учетом вероятности рождения очередного ребенка в условных и реальных поколениях
The article presents the results of an analysis of fertility trends in Russia based on the
most powerful statistical and demographic tool known to the international community as period
and cohort age- and parity-specific fertility tables, constructed for calendar years in retrospective
of four decades (1979-2017), and for generations of women born from 1955 to 1990. The results
are intended to strengthen an objective, comprehensive approach to interpreting historical and
recent fertility trends in in Russia, as well as to a balanced assessment of the foreseeable prospects
for changes in period and cohort total fertility. The author critically assesses the demographic
results of the pronatalist policy in Russia over the past decade and calls into question the overly
optimistic prospects for further increase in level of fertility, widespread in the Russian political
The analysis of current trends of fertility, family planning and family policy in Russia is presented in chapter. The special attention is paid to changes in age profile of fertility, changes in structure of firtility by birth order, current and expected cohort total fertility, to ethnic and regional differentials in fertlity and in abortion prevalence, regional specifics of demographic and family policy. The analysis was carried out on the basis of detailed and, often, unpublished statistical information from Rosstat, Ministry of Public Health, Ministry of Labor, Social insurance fund, and also on representative for Russia sample surveys.
Markedly low fertility rates in Russia and western European countries are real challenges for these states. The governments should determine what considerations guide the people who refuse giving birth to their fi rst or subsequent children, as well as the should understand what measures they can encourage parents to increase the number of children. The following paper shows that, as in Europe, it is very important in Russia to take into account indirect costs of children, and in Russia a parent who is meant in this situation is the mother. However, for Russia the possibility to have children is very closely related to the type of locality, which in the case of our country also means the difference in income and the difference in the established system of external child care.
Russia has a long history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 to 1.6 for the 1968 birth cohort. The government of president Putin became very concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the1990s and early 2000s. Among others, a reasonably comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect on 1 January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011 which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures may turn out to be a failure.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.