Старение как социально-экономический феномен
In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population aging. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages, and mortality at working ages. European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population aging during the period 2003–2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in aging mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population aging. The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population aging across Europe.
The article presents a brief description of the demographic processes in Russia for decades, forecast scenarios of demographic development, and discusses the major demographic challenges to the education system.
Demographic transition leads to huge changes in the age composition of the population and in the structure of the person’s life cycle. This dramatically increases the number of elderly people per one adult and reduces the number of children, but the total dependency ratio of children and elderly people changes insignificantly. Historically developed pay-as-you-go pension systems were targeted at pre-transitional age structure with a small share of elderly people. The population aging requires the replacement of these systems with defined contribution pension systems that would relate pensions to the person’s life cycle structure instead of the population structure thus providing person’s post-labor life with savings earned in the course of the working period.
The legally established retirement age should take into account demographic factors such as life expectancy as well as their disability-free life expectancy of males and females at this age. There are no demographic backgrounds for raising the retirement age in Russia.
China's economic success is largely determined by very low population dependency ratio. This situation was a result of the demographic policy in the PRC. However, another consequence of the same policy becomes imminent rapid aging of China's population. It is very likely that by the early 2030s the country after half a century of unprecedented success will enter a period of coping.
Problems of the population aging in Russia are examened
The paper focuses on the russian poor. Based on the fact revealed in previous studies that severe chronic poverty is characterized by concomitant psycho-emotional deprivation, the author focuses not only on monetary poverty (using the relative income-based approach to group allocation for this purpose), but also subjective one (distinguished through non-monetary indicators). Based on the research database of the The Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (2018), the author comes to the conclusion that the most negative perception of the position in society is not a characteristic of the financially poorest Russians, i.e. the focus of social tension is not concentrated in the zone of deep monetary poverty. While objective (monetary) deep poverty is formed as a result of high dependent burdens and failures of local labor markets, deep subjective poverty is dictated by different reasons - the inaccessibility of the necessary medical support for pensioners with serious health problems, the presence of relatives in the household who are addicted to bad habits, precarious nature of the occupied employment positions. The delimitation of groups and the varying nature of the factors of their formation leads the author to the conclusion that identifying the recipients of social policy solely on the basis of information about the financial situation of households does not allow reaching the part of the poor population where a hotbed of social tension is forming. Based on the identified characteristics of groups, as well as the requests of their representatives for certain measures of social policy, the article proposes a number of measures to reduce the severity of objective and subjective poverty
Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой десятый том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ). Мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков – многоаспектное научное направление, включающее в себя комплексное исследование экономических, политических, социальных, а также культурных особенностей развития того или иного региона. На страницах Мониторинга рассматриваются вопросы методологии анализа процессов социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Афразийской макрозоны нестабильности, публикуются результаты количественного анализа, моделирования и прогнозирования процессов социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Ближнего и Среднего Востока, рассматриваются сами дестабилизационные процессы в Афразийской макрозоне нестабильности на страновом и региональном уровне в контексте глобального развития и национальных интересов России.
Мы надеемся, что данный выпуск ежегодника будет полезен как специалистам, так и широкому кругу читателей, интересующихся глобальными процессами, кризисами, прогнозами мирового развития.
The article is dedicated to the specifics of technologically mediated communication on the example of collective alcohol consumption with the use of programs for video connection such as Skype. The author presents a review of the research concerning the alcohol consumption and online technologies; overviews posts on social media related to the topic; conducts a number of interviews with persons who have an experience of drinking alcohol, while talking online to someone. Despite the fact that the participants of this small-scale study are Russian-speaking emigrants, the conclusion of the research concerns broader issues (such as perception of differences between online and offline communication). The author offers a small typology of the situation of drinking via Skype and concludes that this practice perceived as deficient by its participants.
The article addressed some methodological issues of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in detail and reviewed the idea of further extension (in terms of wealth accounting) on aggregate - economy-wide-level. NTA as one of the types of satellite accounts are explored. They are constructed on alternative concept relative to System of National Accounts (SNA). The article focuses in-depth on methodological features and logical approaches to compiling some indicators. It further explored the wealth content in the system of NTA, its dual nature (accrued real wealth and transfer wealth), and consequent measuring specifcs. Considering international research (US practice), the author discussed established methodological approaches to compiling aggregate wealth accounts and analyzing consumption support in the form of private transfers. Based on Russian national account statistics and aggregate transfer economic account of economic lifecycle compiled for Russia, the article highlighted interconnections between the NTA and the SNA in terms of usage of resources saved in economy to accumulate both non-fnancial and fnancial assets. The author pointed out that balance sheet in SNA function as a macro benchmark for measuring total wealth of economy in NTA. Analysis of age structure indicate rapid population aging in Russia over the last decade. The State has been playing an increasing role in fnancing the economic lifecycle defcit. The question arises: how will this aﬀect private savings? Does the growing social support from the state contain the growth of private savings, partially «replacing» them or not? The information presented in the article, will be useful to readers with an interest in demographic studies and socio-economics.