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Article

Прогнозирование развития гражданского общества в России: методологические возможности и ограничения

Краснопольская И. И., Шашнов С. А.

Predicting the future in the social sphere is possible within several methodological approaches. The article describes the methodology of foresight that allows to develop several options for shaping the future based on current conditions, as well as on perceptions and opportunities of core stakeholders. The article describes basic principles of the foresight methodology, denoted the logic sequence of stages of research, presented the capabilities and limitations of existing empirical data for foresight studies in the social sphere. The authors analyzed how to implement a foresight methodology civil society in practice in foreign studies. Conventionally, uthors determine two groups of foresight studies in developed and developing countries. For each group of countries characteristic drivers of development of civil society are developed. The article also offers explanations for the low prevalence of foresight studies in our country and draw conclusions about the possibility of their effective application to predict the evelopment of Russian civil society