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Article

Распределение богатства и политический конфликт в модели перехода от стагнации к развитию

Яркин А. М., Веселов Д. А.

We propose a two-sector unified growth model, in which the speed of industrialization depends on the outcome of political conflict between the heterogeneous interest groups differing with respect to capital and land ownership. The distribution of capital and land determines agents’ political preferences and their incentives to invest in lobbying for development or blocking modern sector development. The probability that pro-growth policies are realized depends on the aggregate lobbying of two competing groups. We demonstrate that higher concentration of land ownership hampers the development of the modern sector, while higher concentration of capital ownership within the landless agents increases political support of pro-growth reforms and increases the pace of industrialization. Our model also explains the non-monotonous dynamics of political conflict intensity, which corresponds well with structural changes and GDP per capita growth observed in historical data.