Влияние электоральной неопределенности выборов президента США на криптовалютный рынок

Экономика и математические методы. 2026. Т. 25. № 3. С. 853–878.

Кореневский В. В.

The US presidential election is a lengthy and complex process, during which candidates present their views and programs for reforming the country's politics and economy, while mass media broadcast these positions to a wide audience. In the most recent election, the topic of cryptocurrencies was used in the campaign for the electorate for the first time, and this motivated the present study, which aims to identify the relationship between cryptocurrency returns and volatility and an original uncertainty index constructed from a large dataset of YouTube video publications for 2015–2025. To achieve this goal, quantile Granger causality testing and wavelet coherence analysis were employed. The empirical results show that the effect of electoral uncertainty is asymmetric and heterogeneous over time: for tokens exposed to regulatory risk, a significant relationship was found at the lower quantiles of returns, whereas for Bitcoin and stablecoins it holds across all extreme values of the distribution. The relationship between the index and certain cryptocurrencies intensifies during presidential election periods and major political events and exhibits cyclical behavior. The findings identify a new source of uncertainty stemming from the media polarization of electoral processes and extend prior work by examining a broader range of crypto-asset classes. The results may be useful for regulators as well as for cryptocurrency market participants seeking to optimize their strategies around US presidential elections.

Keywords: выборы, elections, sentiment analysis, wavelet analysis, вейвлет-анализ, сентимент-анализ, криптоактивы, electoral uncertainty, quantile Granger causality, crypto-assets, электоральная неопределенность, причинность по Грейнджеру в квантилях