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Анализ согласованности голосования стран ЕАЭС и ОДКБ в ГА ООН с помощью иерархической кластеризации
The EAEU and the CSTO are Russia’s principal regional international organisations. Understanding, assessing, and analysing the foreign-policy positions of the countries that belong to them is a matter of the state’s national interests. This determines the purpose of the study: to identify the level and the form of cohesion in the voting of EAEU and CSTO countries in the UN General Assembly. The level of cohesion is an assessment of countries’ degree of proximity in voting. The form of cohesion concerns which groups countries split into when voting. UN General Assembly votes meet key data characteristics—regularity, relevance, and availability—therefore they were used to assess cohesion. The scientific significance of the study lies in testing a new approach to analysing the level and form of cohesion among countries when voting in international organisations. The applied analysis of the level and form of cohesion makes it possible to assess countries’ cohesion in a way that has not been used for similar tasks. The developed methodology enables the simultaneous analysis of multiple countries. The practical significance of the study lies in determining the cohesion of the foreign-policy positions of EAEU and CSTO countries in order to adjust Russia’s foreign policy. The research findings may be used to forecast foreign policy. The study was carried out using machine-analysis algorithms. The main conclusions are as follows: EAEU and CSTO countries do not form a single bloc when voting in the UN General Assembly. Differences among them are visible at both the regional and global levels, and also in comparison with EU and NATO countries. In 2023, countries’ voting proximity to Russia is at its lowest since 1992. The study identified regular voting patterns. This means that countries’ policies are predictable and can be interpreted by other actors. The hypothesis that an increase in economic and political integration would lead to closer voting patterns was partially confirmed. Active convergence occurred from 1992 to 2007; thereafter, a decline followed. The hypothesis that the format of the Union State of Russia and Belarus would have a positive impact on voting convergence was also not confirmed. The chronological scope of the study covers the period from 1992 to 2023.