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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Вклад мотивации и личностного потенциала в успешность профессиональных футболистов

Психология. Журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2025. Т. 22. № 4. С. 650–672.
Бушманова М. Е., Leontiev D., Rasskazova E.

The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between the personality characteristics of football players and their in-match effectiveness as well as their level of preparedness for the season. Characteristics of motivation and personality potential (conceptualized as self-regulation potential) were examined as possible psychological predictors of success in football. The following battery of techniques was used: the Universal Perceived Locus of Causality scale (UPLOC; Sheldon, Suchkov et al., 2015); the "Flow in Professional Activity" scale (Leontiev, 2015); the Activity-Related Experiences Assessment technique (AREA; Leontiev, 2015); the General Self-Efficacy scale (Schwarzer, Jerusalem, & Romek, 1996); the Self-Control Test (Gordeeva, Osin et al., 2016); a brief version of the Hardiness Survey (Leontiev & Rasskazova, 2006); and a quantitative measure of performance derived from M. Luscher's eight-color test (Luscher, 2007) using the formula for the coefficient of autonomic tone (Shiposh, 1980). The outcome variables consisted of expert coach assessments, player self-assessments, and various objective statistical indicators of player success and effectiveness during the current season. The participants were 67 professional football players aged 18 to 21. The study identified several predictors of player success: negative predictors, which included extrinsic motivation and the commitment component of hardiness, and positive predictors, including intrinsic motivation, self-control, players' experience of pleasure in their free time, and an indicator of psychophysiological performance. The results indicate that the personality characteristics of athletes play a significant role in realizing their abilities and achieving results, which underscores the necessity of incorporating a psychological component into training programs for football players preparing for competitions.

Research target: Psychology
Language: Russian
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Keywords: мотивацияличностный потенциалуспешностьсамоэффективностьfootballmotivationсаморегуляцияжизнестойкостьself-regulationperformancehardinessфутболself-efficacypersonality potentialспортивная деятельностьathletic activity
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