Выпивать и наказывать: социально-экономические детерминанты насильственной преступности в регионах России

Социология власти. 2025. Т. 37. № 4. С. 77–100.

Shchetinina A., Kazun A.

Despite a downward trend, the level of violent crime in Russia—including homicides and intentional infliction of serious bodily harm—remains comparatively high. This article investigates which socio-economic factors, previously identified as significant in international studies, influence violent crime rates across Russian regions. The analysis focuses on three primary determinants: regional economic development, alcohol abuse, and the deterrent effect of crime detection. The study relies on official statistics from the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation for the period 2011–2021. To address issues of endogeneity and the persistence of criminal behavior over time, we employ dynamic panel models (System GMM). The results reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between gross regional product (GRP) per capita and violent crime, supporting the hypothesis that increased economic well-being reduces incentives for violent behavior. In contrast, regional unemployment levels show no significant explanatory power for the types of crimes under investigation. We find that alcohol consumption plays a substantial role: a higher incidence of newly diagnosed alcohol dependence is associated with increased levels of severe violence, particularly in cases of involuntary manslaughter. Additionally, higher detection rates for specific categories of violent crime are linked to lower future crime incidence, in line with Gary Becker’s rational choice theory of crime. Based on these findings, we argue that the reduction of violent crime in Russia is shaped by the effectiveness of law enforcement, public policy on alcohol consumption, and broader prospects for regional economic development.

Keywords: ВРП, потребление алкоголя, alcohol consumption, регионы России, regions of Russia, убийства, homicides, GRP, детерминанты преступности, determinants of crime, dynamic panel models, crime deterrence, динамические панельные модели