Резилиентность территориальных социально-экологических систем: методология анализа и оценки

Региональные исследования. 2025. Т. 88. № 2. С. 4–23.

Sheludkov A., Zotova M., Виноградова В. В., Глезер О. Б., Грачева Р. Г., Старикова А. В., Kotov A., Kurichev N.

This article presents a methodological framework for assessing the resilience of territorial socio-ecological systems (TSES). Despite the widespread adoption of resilience concept, its interpretation remains ambiguous, and quantitative evaluation poses significant challenges. Existing resilience research is often fragmented across disciplines, which contrasts sharply with both the complexity of modern challenges, from economic crises to climate change, and the complex nature of TSES (e.g., countries, regions, cities), where the natural environment, economy, and communities are deeply interconnected. The authors propose shifting from a narrow understanding of resilience–as mere recovery from sector-specific shocks–toward a broader concept that captures systems’ capacity to function and evolve continuously under diverse pressures. The study identifies five core components of TSES (natural environment, economy and labor market, population/human capital, governance and community, and territorial structure) and six systemic properties (structural diversity, concentration, internal/external connectivity, dynamism, and available resources), which serve as universal resilience parameters. By detailing these parameters for each component, the framework enables a comprehensive analysis of TSES conditions and their adaptive potential. The selection of specific quantitative/qualitative indicators can be tailored to a given territory and its unique challenges. The approach was tested through case studies addressing demographic decline in Troitsk (Chelyabinsk Oblast), aridization and desertification in the Republics of Kalmykia and Dagestan, and the 2024 flood disaster in Orenburg Oblast.

Keywords: человеческий потенциал, управление, системный подход, социально-экономический кризис, disaster, systems approach, governance, природные риски, чрезвычайная ситуация, Territorial Resilience, территориальная резилиентность, Socio-economic crisis, human capital, natural risks