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Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia: Regional Projection
Studies of the COVID-19 pandemic have repeatedly demonstrated that the role of spatial factors in the transmission of infection is significant. However, there is no universal spatial model thoroughly describing COVID-19 spread patterns. The paper proposes an original view on the centre-periphery model: regions are classified according to settlement pattern (static component) and openness (closedness) (dynamic component) characterising intensity of inter-regional human interactions (population flows). A total of 8 types of Russian regions are distinguished by the parameters of openness (closedness), population density and average size of a settlement. The course of the pandemic in the regions is analysed using the monthly trend of excess mortality, divided into three waves (acute phases) of COVID-19 spread. Empirical evidence shows that regions differ significantly in terms of the impact of the pandemic. Polarisation is the highest in the first wave, suggesting a greater role for spatial factors in the early stages of coronavirus outbreak. During the second and third waves, differences between regions begin to level out, probably influenced by internal socio-cultural and economic factors. The COVID-19 pandemic in the Russian regions allows us to rethink the traditional hierarchical concept of centre-periphery space. New dimensions are emerging: in addition to classical centres, there are remote frontier regions with similar functionality. Alongside the periphery is the outback (glubinka), close to the centre but paradoxically almost unaffected by its influence.