Риски смерти, связанные с температурами: влияние различных источников климатических данных в регионах России в 2004–2019 гг.

Анализ риска здоровью. 2025. № 2. С. 30–45.

Maximenko M.

Climate change and increasing thermal stress highlights the need to investigate the temperature-mortality relationship using long-term aggregated temperature data. Globally, two primary sources of temperature data are utilized: ground-based meteorological observations and raster datasets. Ground-based observations from meteorological stations offer precise local temperature measurements but lack comprehensive spatial coverage. In contrast, raster data provide complete spatial coverage but may not accurately represent microclimatic conditions. This study aims to compare these data sources for the analysis of temperature-related mortality across regions of Russia.

To assess the exposure-response relationship, a two-stage modeling approach was applied. In the first stage, region-specific estimates were derived using a distributed lag model. In the second stage, pooled estimates were computed through random-effects meta-regression.

The temperature-mortality relationship in Russia is characterized by a typical J-shaped curve, with cold temperatures posing a higher mortality risk. Heat-related risks were generally higher when estimated using raster data compared to in-situ observations. Minimum mortality temperatures typically falls between 15 and 20°C, with higher thresholds observed in warmer regions.

This study suggests the general comparability of raster and point-based temperature data for mortality analysis. However, in certain regions, particularly large and sparsely populated ones, estimates diverged due to multiple factors.

Keywords: изменение климата, mortality, смертность населения, regions of Russia, climate change, air temperature, температура воздуха, регионы РФ, atmosphere reanalysis, temperature stress, атмосферный реанализ, температурный стресс